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Global Markets Analysis – 23 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.11.2014 周日 本周油脂类商品回顾

本周美盘原油连低位震荡下挫,继续延续中线角度的下跌走势,但由于前期快速下探后,短线角度上存在技术超卖现象,在11月14日低点73.26美元/桶横盘整理一周未被下破,下周若该低点支撑有效,后市短线上存在技术反弹要求。

美盘豆油1月合约,已经连续13周横盘整理,期价始终在箱体下压低点位置震荡,即不下破也未上攻,短线行情走势上暂时失去方向,属于窄区间震荡整理走势,不能对其他油脂商品做出明确的方向性指引。后市继续关注在前低31.80位置的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油主力合约1505,本周走势原地踏步,5个交易日期价变化不大,成交量萎缩,盘面行情令人昏昏欲睡,无序震荡行情下的操作意义不大,市场观望气氛较浓。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,本周5个交易日期价始终依托日图表上40天均线横盘整理,5天K线呈三阳二阴,盘中抵抗性整理意向明显。

综述:11月17日至11月21日当周的5个交易日内,油脂类商品消息面匮乏,技术面走势模糊。在美盘豆油横盘震荡时刻,内盘与马盘油脂商品市场人气涣散,交投不旺,多空主力均失去方向感,此刻参与其中意义不大。我们继续保持短线下探震荡整理观点不变,个人认为继续以横盘区间震荡下的无趋势行情对待,仍建议场外观望为上,不做无谓牺牲。 后市关注美豆油在前低31.80处的表现,若下破表明下探仍未结束。若支撑有效则表明市场仍在32.00-34.00窄区间内横盘整理。该箱体上下沿未明确有效突破前,内盘与马盘油脂商品上也只能以静制动冷眼对待,继续保持震荡行情下不见兔子不撒鹰。别无他法。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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