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Global Markets Analysis – 23 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.10.2014 周四 大陆油脂现货市场蠢蠢欲动

在美盘豆油与美大豆低位震荡下行整理无明确结果的时候,中国大陆现货市场近2日却出现价格小幅上涨局面。据国家粮油信息中心10月23日消息:24度棕榈油各港口交货价格分别为:天津港 22日为5420元/吨;23日 为5450元/吨。山东日照港 22日为5400;23日为5450元/吨。江苏张家港22日为5480;23日为5500元/吨。浙江宁波港22日为5520;23日为5550元/吨。棕榈油现货交货价格普遍上涨20至50元不等。同时豆油现货价格也有30至60元不等的上涨。当前国内棕榈油库存持续下降,当前库存与5月份时候高点相比,棕榈油库存累计下降55%还多。至于豆油方面,由于近期大豆供应紧张,油厂的压榨量有所下滑,国内豆油的总库存或将有所下降。

在期货市场萎靡不振,成交清淡多空观望的时候,大陆内盘现货市场出现些许异动,虽然异动还不特别明显,但已经影响到内盘期货市场油脂类商品短线走势,周四早盘,豆油与棕榈油1501合约小幅跳空高开,虽盘面上行力度还不是很强,但已经对前期的下跌局面有所遏制。

在大陆内盘与美盘亚洲电子盘周四的红盘上涨提振下,马盘毛棕榈油基准1月早盘高开高走,盘中出现增仓上行,明显有多头主力进场建仓多单。

小结:周四早盘,期货市场油脂类商品出现小幅红盘上涨(马盘稍强),前期的下挫疲软态势有所收敛,期价出现异动,能否就此展开反弹行情尚待观察。个人观点认为前期的逢高短空短线操作不再建议执行。考虑到现货市场的蠢蠢欲动,短线上可少量多单追随多头主力进场尝试(马盘有异动)。若美盘豆油今晚出现中阳上涨K线,内盘油脂多单明天也可少量进场试盘,油脂商品今天出现反弹欲望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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