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Global Markets Analysis – 23 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.10.2015 周五 油脂商品期价反复;短线操作难度较难把握

今天10月23日周五,油脂类商品当前的短线走势如此反复,好郁闷的一个上午。美盘豆油10月20日周二回落整理时候,期价下跌到下方60天均线位置止跌回升中阳收盘,(有短线企稳盘口语言),10月21日周三又继续高开高走红盘中阳报收(有发力上行盘口语言)2天的短线走高反弹上行迹象出现苗头,10月22日昨天盘中亚洲电子盘继续在周三时候的高位运行,我们由短空观点转为短多观点之后,昨日晚间美盘豆油却戏剧性的出现走低,美盘豆油当前期价仍维持在5日均线上方, 继续关注它的表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天走势更是令人哭笑不得,昨日豆油1601长阳上涨,大有恢复前期反弹欲望,今天周五早盘却又高开低走,K线上形成于昨日幅度相对的阴K线,一阳一阴长度相当的K线,瞬间令内盘油脂商品的短线走势出现模糊,在收获季节的尾声阶段,期价随意的反复,表明当前多空主力分歧较大,令盘面把握难度加大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,周二低开高走结束短线的回落整理走势,周三跳空高开,一举扭转颓废,昨日继续高位十字星运行,短线反弹走势刚刚准备拉开序幕,今天周五早盘又莫名的跳空低开,一跃而下,来弥补前2日的跳空缺口,马棕榈油也出现令人费解的短线走势,期价反复较为剧烈。

小结:今天周五盘中,油脂类商品短线走势令人费解,多空主力争夺激烈,昨日多头胜出一头,今天空头又反戈一击,令当前短线操作难度加大,在收获季节结束阶段,期价反复原本在所难免,但油脂商品今天的盘中表现还是让人大跌眼镜。今天周末,建议关注下周一的盘面表现(下周一的盘中表现就显得尤为关键了),若能继续上行则短线多单继续持有,若再期价下挫,则表明前期的短线回落行情还没有完全结束。我既不想在油脂商品反弹上行走势中把我们丢下,也不想在期价下挫回落当中受伤,这是我们当前选择过程中最艰难的地方。密切关注下周一美盘豆油的具体表现,本周末暂时以静制动模糊观望一下。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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