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Global Markets Analysis – 23 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


23.10.2017周一美盘豆油成功挑战目标压力技术位

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间期价中阳上涨,反抽上攻技术压力位,期价曾一度冲高到34.47(击破原趋势线与60天均线的阻挡),后在多头逢高平仓盘以及空头主力阻挡盘的压制下,终盘期价以带上影线的中阳K线收盘于34.16. 该数字恰好是我们早先所预测的34.10–34.20范围内。今天周一亚洲电子盘期价继续在趋势线技术位置34.15波动震荡(预计短线要在该位置反复考验,验证1–3天),美豆油将在本周初给出市场明确信号—–是突破趋势线从而回到原来上升通道里?还是关键技术位受阻而再度下挫下来?我个人更倾向于后一种的受阻下挫。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周一盘面,追随美盘豆油上涨,盘面特点仍是棕榈油走势略强于豆油,本周初这几天我们要把握好前期多单逢高平仓出局的时机把握。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(12月),今天周一早盘受美盘内盘油脂商品上涨提振,今天早盘期价略有走高,本波短线反弹上行力度不是很大—-我们前期的多单即便不会盈利很多,但也不至于亏损很大,在马盘棕榈油上我们也要分数量分点位,多单平仓逐步兑现出局。

小结:美盘豆油超跌之后的短线反弹上行延续中,期价基本上攻到我们所预测的技术期价范围内。但由于内盘马盘与美盘的不同步现象,造成内盘马盘油脂商品的上涨幅度不及理想预期,这也是一直以来我们建议以“弱势反弹观点”对待的原因。具体操作上:鉴于美盘豆油基本反弹到位,因此上在对应的内盘马盘油脂商品上逐步多单逢高出局将成为本周初的重点,建议用一种保守的平仓方法——分批量分点位,逐步逢高减仓从今天开始,具体数量可根据个人的持仓情况分三批次兑现出局。后市继续关注美盘豆油在”上升趋势线”与“60天均线”位置的市场表现,待市场走势信号明确后,我们将从新制定新的操盘计划。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues its uptrend after a sharp drop in the previous session.
• China and Malaysia edible oils are not synchronized, causing the upward momentum of the market become weaker.
• Traders may pay close attention to the uptrend line and 60-days moving average line on the chart of US soybean oil.
• We hold short-term long outlook as the market is expected to rebound and move upward.

[ACTION]
• Traders in China and Malaysia market may initiate/average long positions but prepare to close positions when the prices are high.
• Traders in US market may prepare to close positions when the price are high from today.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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