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Global Markets Analysis – 23 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.23 周二 期价出现反复 仍建议逢高放空

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油1501合约,昨日中阴下跌下破箱体下沿,市场短线行情最终选择了沿中线角度下的原下降趋势的下行方向,表明当前均线系统空头排列下的期价反弹欲望被扼杀,弱势格局下的任何反弹行为均遭到空头主力的坚决阻挠,长期操作角度下的下探寻大底过程还未完全结束。今天周二早盘期价小幅低开高走,期价虽有所反复,但若不能再次回到原箱体内,我们短线层面操作观点仍以下挫思路对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日呈抵抗性下跌,对棕榈油出口前景良好预期以及马来西亚令吉的汇率疲软制约了毛棕榈油11月的下跌空间,终盘以带下影线十字星收盘,今天早盘又顺势高开,期价跌破40天线后今天又站回上边,表明多头主力的反弹欲望仍不甘心轻易承认失败,期价有所反复。自9月2日开始的本波逆中线下降趋势的短线反弹行情唯有马盘毛棕榈油走势较强,这与大陆内盘和美盘油脂商品形成了强大反差,同时也表明毛棕榈油在期价到达5年多来低点后替代豆油和生物柴油的优良属性得以显现,当前期价反复中。

美盘豆油12月,自上周开始截止到今天,呈现先扬后抑走势,到今天亚洲电子盘,期价已经下挫到9月10日前低附近,若下破前低则表明美盘豆油中长线角度的下探寻支撑过程仍未完结。

小结:今天内外盘油脂商品期价出现不同程度反复,马盘本波短线反弹行情走势较强,短线的反弹与中线的下降趋势在方向相反情况下进行激烈的博弈。大陆内盘和美盘油脂商品前期的短线反弹无力和反弹欲望疲软,更多的受中线原下降趋势方向的作用力下运行。整体来说:油脂商品下行压力还是非常大,短线上期价今天虽有所反复,但仍不足以改变原下降趋势的压力前,我们短线仍以下挫看待。今天个人仍建议逢高放空策略。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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