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Global Markets Analysis – 24 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.24 周日 本周回顾(18.08.2014 – 22.08.2014) 马棕榈领跌

本周8月18日 – 8月22日油脂类商品中最值得一提的是马来西亚毛棕榈油基准11月,5个交易日连续5连阴,惯性连续下跌演绎的非常完美,空头主力节奏把握非常到位,大有把多头全部绞杀干净的意思。当前期价已经跌至5年来(2009年)的低位,本周走势显示出马盘棕榈油独立个性的一面,领跌全球油脂类商品,令人印象深刻。

美盘豆油12月,本周前4个交易日两阴两阳,阴阳互现小幅平台震荡,本已出现少许止跌迹象,可惜周五晚节不保,以中阴下跌收盘,再创新低32.58 ,从周五晚间的走势来看,大有跟随马盘棕榈的含义,令短线(前4天)小平台止跌雏形毁于一旦。

大陆内盘豆油1501合约,本周5个交易日短暂止跌迹象最为明显,连续5连阳小十字星横盘整理,下方多头护盘迹象明显,可惜经过周五美盘和马盘的再次下跌,内盘豆油一个品种孤掌难鸣,失败的可能性增大。

大陆内盘棕榈油1501合约,本周前4交易日也存在止跌迹象,可周五晚间的夜盘交易,期价受马盘毛棕榈油下跌影响,晚间跟随美盘豆油,期价出现大幅度下跌,终盘以中阴K线光头光脚收盘, 令短线的下行态势再次变得明显。

综述:本周油脂类商品走势出现分化,豆油原本已经出现止跌雏形,棕榈油却依旧惯性下挫,特别是马盘毛棕榈油11月,一马当先领跌全球油脂类商品,令油脂类商品雪上加霜,期价再次创出新低,“多头不死,空头不止” 再次被演绎。我们不当多头也不当空头已经有好几天了,即便在场外观看,期市上的惨烈场面也令人不寒而栗,今年的反季节行情被演绎到极致。个人观点是:马盘毛棕榈油下周初继续观望。大陆内盘棕榈油观望。内盘豆油可少许空单进场,不排除内盘豆油下周一有补跌嫌疑,日内操作不持单过夜。下周是8月份最后一个交易周,周K线和月K线将做出收官图形,密切关注下周空头主力可否有平仓出局意愿。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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