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Global Markets Analysis – 24 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.08.2015 周一 中国人民币贬值一周后 新兴市场哀鸣遍野 期货市场一地鸡毛

在中国人民币上周二大幅贬值后,全球新兴市场货币战争逐渐拉开序幕,“货币屠杀”出现进一步恶化。在中国货币贬值后其他亚洲国家;甚至其他经济体均纷纷效仿,有故意跟随性贬值还有是在市场抛售压力之下被迫贬值,近两周形式达到最为严峻时刻,其中哈萨克斯坦在政府实行自由浮动汇率之后暴跌26%,俄罗斯、加纳、哥伦比亚、几内亚、白俄罗斯、土耳其、马来西亚、阿尔及利亚的货币贬值幅度至少都在4%。货币贬值3%的国家至少还有17个之多,事实上新兴市场国家的货币都不同程度的出现了贬值,货币战争进行中。更有一些较为悲观的市场评论家认为,亚洲国家重演1998年金融危机或在劫难逃。

在上周五中国公布的8月份制造业数据疲软,对中国经济增速放缓的忧虑以及中国需求的担忧更为加剧,这令全球期货市场大宗商品普遍承压,均出现了不同程度的下跌。仅有贵金属黄金市场成为避险工具出现了上涨,这种现象要引起我们一定的警惕。

今天周一,中国股票市场再现黑色星期一,上证指数跳空低开暴跌达到8%以上,道琼斯指数也是长阴暴跌,日经指数、纳斯达克、标普500、恒生指数也都是疯狂下跌,大有世界末日到来的含义,令人毛骨悚然。

我们较为关心的油脂类商品在今天周一也未能幸免,受周边全球悲观情绪影响,其中美盘豆油12月合约继续保持下探疲软走势,盘中依然未见到短线的下挫支撑位。继续短线短空观点不变。国际原油延续震荡走软,其中纽约原油首次下破40美元/桶大关,全球为之震惊。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一早盘低开低走,长阴暴跌,其中棕榈油1601合约甚至出现了跌停。市场恐慌情绪蔓延,悲观情绪严重扩大,期价下挫出现了加速迹象。建议短空观点看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,今天周一早盘也未能幸免,在周边油脂类商品普遍下跌影响下,在全球悲观情绪笼罩下,马棕榈油早盘跳空低开,在稍微红盘抵抗后,终不抵下行压力,期价重心再度下移,疲软走势明显。

小结:全球证券市场与商品市场迎来恐怖的黑色星期一,全球投资人士恐慌情绪达到极致, 在整体暴跌下行商品中仅有贵金属黄金品种成为全球金融避险工具短线上行。在极度悲观情绪下,当前商品的疲软态势恐仍将延续,个人短线看空观点不变。个人观点认为中长线油脂多单持有,短线角度空单建议逢高短空,商品品种上可适当多单跟进黄金,形成跨品种套利操作。建议后市密切关注市场焦躁情绪对大宗商品的下行影响程度。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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