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Global Markets Analysis – 24 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.08.2016 周三 手中无仓单的交易者暂时场外观望

美盘豆油12月,昨天晚间以带上下影线的阳十字星收盘,期价围绕5日均线附近波动,整体观察-美盘豆油近四天来呈现出横盘震荡走势,期价未出现明显的上涨或者连续下挫,在近一个月来的反弹上行之后,美盘豆油出现高位的横盘震荡,这种盘面信号同样要引起我们的谨慎,我们继续保持短线的回落整理观点对待,密切关注后市短线的回落空间。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,前几日期价出现小幅下挫走势,今天周三盘中又跳空高开高走,盘中的期价反复迹象较为明显,表明多头主力仍在盘中进行顽强抵抗,当短线的技术超买下挫整理与中线的反弹上行-在方向走势上出现相驳迹象时候,最容易出现这种异常走势,从今天内盘油脂类商品的走势上观察,我们把本波短线的回落整理行情定义为主动性“强势整理”比较合理,后市短线继续保持整理观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,连续三根阴K线回落整理之后,昨日周二盘中期价低开高走以中阴K线红盘报收,今天马盘棕榈油又继续小幅走高,盘中多头主力的短线护盘迹象也非常明显,由于马来西亚棕榈油出口量的显著增加已经令吉特的走软均对盘面存在一定程度的利多心理影响,马盘短线多头主力的顽强抵抗也就不足为奇。

小结:美盘豆油横盘震荡,连续4天未形成连续的2根错列下行的阴K线,这给内盘与马盘油脂类商品的多头主力提振了信心,今天油脂商品的短线走高表现,充分说明我们昨日报告中提到的“强势整理”是本波回落整理短线行情的基本特征, 因此上我们基本可以判断出,本波回落整理的下挫空间应该不会很大,在短线期价未明显出现回落整理结束信号之前,我们继续保持短线的强势回落整理观点不变。观点认为操作上:中线多单交易者继续持有,短线无仓交易者场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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