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Global Markets Analysis – 24 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.12.2014 周三 油脂商品分化;马棕榈一枝独秀

周三早盘,美原油依旧延续下挫后的短暂原地踏步,盘中下方出现少许买盘支撑,但是否支撑有效尚待观察,临近50.00操作上需谨慎。

美豆油3月合约,继续沿着箱体下沿32.00一线小幅右侧横盘震荡,以时间换空间等待国际原油的企稳,当前的美豆油短线走势模糊,完全不具备可操作性及研判性观望。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505合约,继续保持前期震荡下行走势良好,日内逢高短空操作模式仍可执行,日内平仓了结不过夜。

我们重点说说马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,该商品近几日出现异动,短线走势均强于大陆内盘与美盘。昨日周二盘中,更是长阳上涨收盘,期价击破上方60天线(2200)的阻挡,短线走势转强迹象明显,若该品种后市期价能站60天均线之上运行,则应以短线上看多对待,具体操作上2200左右进多,下放10个点2190设置为多单止损点,在这非常时期,该品种有走独立行情苗头,不同品种我们以不同观点对待。

小结:美原油短暂止跌,美豆油横盘不动,内盘震荡下挫,马盘震荡强势上行, 当前油脂类商品短线走势出现分化,基本面原因令本身品种走势上出现不同,此种情况下,市场分析难度加大,个人建议操作上宜以不同品种区别对待。考虑到最终油脂商品的共进退,因此看空品种不看太低,看多品种不看太高,观点认为各给50大板打折扣观点模糊思维操作为宜。

耐心等待多品种和多地区的共同方向前进。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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