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Global Markets Analysis – 24 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.02.2016 周三 美盘豆油大幅下挫;短空观点对待

昨日周二晚间美盘豆油5月合约,期价走软中阴K线下跌。前期我们一直所担忧的终于成为现实。在前高附近的高位一直徘徊不前,多头主力始终不能积聚起能量上攻,在多头人气萎靡时候,则空头主力气焰将会高涨,正所谓“此消彼长”,资本的嗜血性往往如此-无所谓对错;那方强势,资金会很快追随过去。昨日晚间在空头主力增仓打压下,美盘豆油遭受重创,短线的下挫回落走势已然拉开,短空看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,近期表现上呈现棕榈强而豆油弱, 在没有得到美盘后续支持下,一直在较高位置横盘震荡勉强维持波动,其中的危机感已经体现,昨日周二盘中的中阴小跌收盘,我们就立刻感受到这种危机,建议短线多单平仓离场。今天周三早盘,内盘油脂豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,双双低开低走追随美盘下跌,我们提前一步规避了下挫回落的风险。昨日多单平仓出场后的反手空单建议继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,本波回落下挫整理的先行者,我们早期就说过,只要期价运行在前期的跳空缺口上方,我们就保持多单观点对待。但在本周一的时候,期价就已经下挫到缺口位置下方,第一个给我们带来不利信号。周二的跳空低开,一下让我们明白市场开始转方向了,因此我们也建议散户朋友短线多单平仓止损出局, 其中较为激进短线交易者可反手短空操作。(保持始终有单在手;当多单持仓理由消失时便是空单新仓进场时-这是我们多年一贯的操作理念)

小结:美原油在日K线图表上受阻于60天均线位置连续几天不过,美盘豆油在前高一线徘徊震荡摇摇欲坠,昨日晚间的中阴K线下跌瞬间指明了市场短线运行方-下挫回落整理行情展开,我们短空观点对待。个人建议在操作上:中长线多单减仓操作,短线操作者昨日多单离场后的新进反手空单持有,后市以回落整理看待油脂市场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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