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Global Markets Analysis – 24 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.02.2017 周五 “万事俱备 只欠东风” 利空出尽便是利多

美国农业部(USDA)昨日晚间发布数据显示:2017年度美国大豆播种面积将达到8800万英亩,高于去年的8340万英亩。也高于业内分析人士预测的8758万英亩。黄豆连美豆油受利空影响双双下跌,其中美豆油5月合约第5小浪的下跌幅度已经与第3小浪幅度相当,当前美国方面基本情况已经完全明朗—-基本上利空因素完全出尽(最恶略时候恰恰是多单埋伏的最佳时机)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,今日周五盘面带下影线的小阴阳十字星表现,期价处于跌无可跌局面,下影线的出现—-表明下方有部分多头主力低位护盘,短线角度的回落整理已经相当充分。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周四盘面以带下影线的小阴K线收盘,今天周五盘中小阳K线表现,连续几天的下挫,期价杀跌动能有所减弱。而马来西亚当前的棕榈油产量季节性增长的预期态势已被市场接受与认知。

小结:当前全球油脂商品基本面利空情绪蔓延到达极致阶段(也是期价下挫到短线最低点的时刻),考虑到本波中线角度下挫整理已经相当充分—-本波“低点”预测完全是纯技术角度,部分品种已经完全处于短线技术超跌层面(跌无可跌局面),当前期价处于一个短线技术层面的多单埋伏机会—不管后市是1.强势反抽还是2.弱势反弹,都会出现一定的期价走高机会(仅仅二者高度不同,强势反抽期价会力度更强些,弱势反弹上涨幅度会小些)内盘与马盘已经隐隐出现护盘动作,万事俱备只欠东风—只待美盘豆油中阳或长下影K线的“东风”出现。具体操作上:无仓与稳健型交易者今日多单也建议少量进场埋伏,与昨日激进型交易者站在同一战壕中,静静等待技术型“冲锋号角”响起。

[SUMMARY]
• Bearish sentiment on global edible oils is believed to have reached its peak, which may be the bottom of the downtrend.
• From a technical point of view, edible oils have little room to fall further, which would mean that it is a good opportunity to go long.
• Regardless of a possible rebound or retracement, the chance of an uptrend remains.
• Protective buying appears to have emerged in China and Malaysia markets.

[ACTION]
• Passive traders may enter a small number of long positions, joining aggressive traders in yesterday’s action, in anticipation of bullish signal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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