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Global Markets Analysis – 24 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.24 周四 利空出尽便是利多 尚待验证

全球油脂类商品从中线角度来说继续保持下降趋势下的下跌态势,理论上来讲本波中线的下跌是为后期的上涨做铺垫。从长线角度来说,以美盘豆油12月(季度图表)技术分析观察可知,长期角度上油脂类商品是多年来的一个大周期性上涨趋势。中线的下降趋势仅仅是包含其中的一个大波段。我们前期一直所持有的“ 震荡性下跌筑中长线大底”观点就是基于此基础。美盘豆油季度图表下跌极限位置为33.50-34.00左右,这位置将出现强力支撑,后市能否见到该价格,目前也尚不确定。我们再次重申观点-继续保持震荡筑中长期大底观点不变。

上面是从中长线角度来说的,但中长线趋势角度与我们账户是否盈利没有必然联系。账户的即时性盈亏更多体现的是中短线波段角度层面的影响,(没有人能持农产品仓单达一年或者几年)所以做为期货投机机构特别是投机散户关注的重点更应该侧重于中短线趋势下的波段角度层面。

我们上面倆段话的含义用普通散户都能明白的意思就是说,按照中长线下降趋势下跌角度来说,我们应该做空。待受到支撑出现大周期拐点时候,我们应该反手做多。在二者出现完美转换时候,如果有人能把握住这个机会,那一定会成为胜利者。在越接近转换尾声时候也是最难操作的时候 ,再继续追空怕反转被套,过早接盘做多怕继续下跌。这种情况就是我们现在所遇到的盘面情况,这也正是我们这段时间来建议空单平仓出局,多单也不急于下手,场外观望操作模式的思路所在。

说完中长线角度,我们来说说我们更为关心的短线角度操作思路。美盘、大陆内盘和马盘 油脂商品今天周四早盘略微出现异动信号,由于前期下跌时间已经够长,下跌幅度已然不小,下跌动能得到一定释放。短线技术层面早已经处于超卖阶段,短线技术反弹要求更为强烈。其中大陆内盘棕榈油1501合约截止今天周四上午收盘,出现阳包阴吞没走势。美盘豆油、内盘豆油和马盘毛棕榈油早盘出现高开。短线是否呈现反弹走势值得我们警惕。

小结:期市有句古话“利空出尽便是利多”,就是说在基本面最后的利空消息出现时候,当时对应的商品期货价格是最低的。只要随后不再有新的利空消息出现,后市的期货价格只能是上涨。我们现在所不能确定的是基本面的利空消息出完没?相信这是每个期货人最关心的事情。基本面给不了我们答案,那我们就从技术面多做些分析,只要今天和明天的盘面出现右侧的向上动能,激进的操作者可适当考虑少量多单进场接盘试盘,我们近期一直观望等待的短线机会,就是指这短线操作模式。待信号完全明朗,我们接盘多单会第一时间报告指出。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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