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Global Markets Analysis – 24 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周一 内盘短线支撑 马盘回落抵抗

美盘大豆, 豆油周五晚间均出现下跌,阴K线收盘。大陆内盘油脂商品周一早盘仅仅平开,期价运行在60天线处,豆油1409合约期价围绕60天线小幅整理,1409棕榈油在60天上方仍短暂受到支撑,今天早盘之所以没大幅度低开,都是因为内盘期价早于外盘,已经提前回落到60天线位置, 而马盘毛棕榈油6月期价都不到下方的40天线, 美盘豆油也仅仅刚到40天线处。

B浪回落仍然进行中,整体的回抽整理行情还未完结,调整的还不够充分,未到完美程度。在时间上后市仍需继续整理,但下方的空间已经不大(除非下破60天线),内盘油脂商品多空主力暂时歇手,在偷偷观察美盘 马盘后市动向。

小结: 由于美盘豆油还未到60天线处,虽然只有一步之遥,但该位置是否为有效支撑因此还不能确定,大陆内盘在静等美盘的指引。 马盘毛棕榈油抵抗性较强,回落幅度较小,若后市美盘豆油冲击60天线的技术支撑位,恐马盘毛棕榈油有补跌可能。 整体来说,由于回落幅度不同,内外盘离60天线的距离不尽相同,均在等待美盘豆油未来几日在该处的表现的指引,行情又到微妙区域,个人看法:波段 短线操作者2周前高位空单时刻做好平仓了结准备。 趋势性操作者静心观察油脂商品整体在60天线技术位的表现,待确认支撑有效后在多单进场,现在还不到最佳时刻,场外耐心继续观察。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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