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Global Markets Analysis – 24 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.03.2016 周四 美盘豆油冲高回落;内盘与马盘油脂商品出现获利回吐现象

昨日周三晚间,美盘豆油5月合约高开低走中阴K线下跌收盘,K线形态上出现了阴包阳的“吞没” 走势,表明在经过短线的连续上涨后,技术走势上出现了回落整理性质的技术修复行为。细心的散户朋友可能已经从前几日报告中就体会到一点点,我言语中对该现象出现的提前担忧,仅仅是期价在惯性加速反弹上行进行的过程中-盘中尚未出现变盘信号前,不能语言直接下结论。昨日晚间美盘的一根吞没阴K线,让我们的担忧转为现实,后市美盘豆油回落整理走势不可避免,短线操作层面由短多思维转为短空思维看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨日周三盘中率先出现高位的波动震荡,昨日的盘面表现为减仓下行-该现象为典型的多头平仓出逃盘口语言。我们提到过-由于获利盘积累过多,盘中的任何细小情绪波动都容易造成盘面的剧烈波动,逢高兑现利润首先成为短线交易者的第一操作思路。今天周四盘中,低开低走的第二根错列下跌的阴K线。直接表明短线的回落整理拉开序幕。建议操作上继续延续昨日的建议;短线交易这多单继续平仓出局。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日盘中期价也曾出现高位的剧烈波动,唯一与内盘不同的是马棕榈昨日周三表现为增仓下行-这盘口语言为空头主力进场打压。在今天外围市场油脂商品期价普遍走软影响下,马盘棕榈油今天周四盘中出现下跌是不可避免(目前尚未开盘)。同样思维-由于马盘棕榈油连续短线加速反弹上行,获利筹码利润丰厚,不排除今天盘中出现多头主力兑现筹码出逃迹象,同时马来西亚令吉特汇率的大幅走强也将制约马棕榈期价的走高。操作上:建议短线交易手中多单率先逢高兑现利润平仓出场。

小结:没有做不到,只有想不到-越是担忧什么,越是出现什么。我们好几次报告中提到内心深处的那一丝丝警惕,在昨日盘中终于显露出蛛丝马迹,今天内盘油脂商品的再次下跌走势,直接宣告前期的反弹上行结束,短线的回落整理行情又拉开序幕。该走势早在我们的预料之中(仅仅是我们不知道反弹上行的最高点到底在何处?)由于我们提前就从思维上对该现象有过心理准备,对于今天的盘面走势我们并不感到意外。短线观点上-后市以反弹上行之后的回落整理,技术修复观点看待。 具体操作上:短线交易者手中多单率先逢高平仓离场,把利润锁定和先装口袋再说。其中部分离场的短线激进交易者可适量仓单反手短空交易。至于中长线交易者,由于操作周期的长度不同,这就需要个人的自己做个决定。个人建议中长线交易者中的部分,波段性质的交易者也可多单逢高先出来,待后市期价适当回落下来再接回,这也属于一种明智的交易策略,完全没必要多单死扛。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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