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Global Markets Analysis – 24 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.11.2014 周一 油脂商品仍将震荡筑底

当前国内油脂商品现货市场成交稳定,豆油现货市场进入年末的小包装备货阶段。棕榈油现货市场各港口库存小幅回升,进口量有所增加但尚不构成压力。整体国内油脂商品仍属于去库存消化过程中,在需求方面未出现明显改善前,期货市场恐仍将震荡整理。

马棕榈油方面,季节性产量回落已被市场投资人士认定为大概率事件,但欧盟的需求下滑也令马棕榈的去库存预期有所减弱,这也是造成当前马盘毛棕榈油上下两难境界。考虑到马来西亚后期的厄尔尼诺现象的发生概率上升至70%个百分点。我们仍对马棕榈未来表现有良好预期。

美大豆收割完毕,美豆油仍在整理平台下沿附近震荡,美豆油后期走势对全球油脂商品的影响至关重要。

国际原油市场经过中线快速暴跌之后,短线出现止跌企稳迹象,后期原油输出国是否减产以及11月末的OPEC会议指引成为关注目标。

小结:中国周末的意外减息将提振中国的需求,对所有进口商品来说长期利好。中国是油脂商品的需求大国, 从长期角度说,油脂商品后市我们仍保持长线看好。在中线下降趋势下的短线行情,我们仍以下探震荡筑大底观点不变。个人观点认为稳健者继续场外观望,耐心等待多单进场机会。部分马盘前期多单短线持有者可继续谨慎持有。耐心等待利空出尽后的利好出现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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