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Global Markets Analysis – 24 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.10.2014 周五 油脂商品期价有所走强

昨晚美盘油脂类商品受美国大豆交割速度缓慢,技术性买盘和现货市场供应紧张影响,美盘大豆、豆粕、豆油均出现不同程度的上涨,其中美豆油12月为中阳K线红盘收盘,期价从低位出现触底反弹迹象。另有消息称美国对华大豆出口销售总量同比增加9.04%百分点,美国农业部此前可能低估了2013/2014年度中国大豆进口规模。

受外围油脂商品走强影响,马盘毛棕榈油在昨日红盘上涨报收后,今天周五早盘继续跳空高开上行,毛棕榈油基准1月,一马当先领涨于其它油脂类商品,前期的抵抗性下挫成效得到体现,期价再次站回60天均线上方,反弹欲望再次彰显。

大陆内盘油脂商品昨日同样出现走高欲望,但上行的力度要弱于马盘与美盘,依然属于看别人脸色追随状态。

小结:油脂商品在基本面方面悄悄出现了新变化,由前期的单产、种植面积、总产量等供应方面悄悄往需求方面转移,需求方面对期货与现货的影响力度有抬头迹象,这点要引起我们警惕。受利好情绪影响,全球油脂商品出现不同程度小幅走高,后市能到得以延续这种局面成为我们关注的焦点。个人观点认为短线上先以反弹起步观点看待,昨日和今日进场试盘多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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