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Global Markets Analysis – 24 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.24日 周三 短线上仍以疲软态势看待油脂商品

今天9月24日周三,大陆内盘油脂商品在周一出现中阴大跌之后,昨日小阳K线小幅走高,今天延续昨天的小阳继续上涨,昨天我们就提示期价将有所反复,虽然连续2天红盘收盘,但期价仍然在周一的阴K线范围内震荡,阴K线失地未被收复前仍以下挫看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月当前成为主力合约,马盘棕榈同样存在期价反复现象,周一从高位跳下来,周二又跳上去,今天又窄幅小波动,期价围绕40天线来回震荡,多空主力仍在这关键技术位争夺进行中。

美盘豆油12月近几日期价变化不大,在前低31.52一线位置,多空主力操作均趋于谨慎,在未明显上扬前仍以下探寻支撑看待。

小结:当交易频繁操作时,对盘面的思考时间就会减少。当前手中无多少仓单情况下,对行情走势的思考时间却充足了。继周一长阴破位下跌后,昨天今天油脂商品期价有所反复,并未出现大幅度的下跌,表明当前期货价格下方的空间已经不是很大,但若就此上涨难度也非常大,这充分表明长期角度下的探底过程进行中,并且该过程 从时间上来说比较漫长。短线来说当前市场行情仍属于疲软态势中,虽马盘毛棕榈油出现一波短暂的反弹行情,但未带动起内盘与美盘油脂商品的同样走势,这表明9月份的反弹时机不是最佳时刻。10月份是美盘大豆的收割完结时间段,当所有利空消息都一一兑现后,利空出尽后的盘面会更轻松。我们的前辈乔治.索罗斯就曾对自己的成功总结过,其中一条是”乱局是大局”。 他的意思是说,越是乱局时候也就是出大行情的时候。当前的油脂类商品喋喋不休的下挫,其最终目的就是下探寻大底后为中长期上涨打基础,我们对此观点依然保持不变。面对当前油脂商品的疲软,我们内心一定要坚信,当最后时刻坏消息出尽后,也是油脂商品价格最低的时候,美豆油30.00以下价格,马棕榈油2000令吉特以下价格 ,内盘豆油 棕榈油5×00的价格 ,均是我们可以多单接盘的长期投资价格区域。没有只跌不涨的行情,也同样没有只涨不跌的走势。当前我们短线仍保持疲软走势观点看待不变,但内心一定要记住,我们要抓这波行情拐点的初衷不变,换句话来说,当我们看见期价下跌越接近我们的理想价位我们应该更高兴才对。简单一句话总结为: “短线看空中长线看多”观点不变。并且悄悄补充一句,本波拐点行情从时间上推算在10月份发动的概率大增。个人观点认为先关注即时的短线行情,内心不放弃时刻思考着未来的长线行情。即短线仍逢高放空,等待市场寻找到下方的完美支撑点。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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