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Global Markets Analysis – 24 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


24.09.2015 周四 内盘豆油 棕榈油二者之间走势分化

美盘原油连日图表上,连续几日上攻到60天均线处均被阻挡,60天均线成为美原油不可逾越的鸿沟,昨日晚间又出现受阻中阴下跌,该位置若始终不过,势必对多头人气是个打击,后市恐有回落可能。(如同水流,那边阻力小,往那边流动)。

美盘大豆与美盘豆油,短线角度依然震荡下挫整理中,其中美大豆存在创新低的可能。美盘豆油12月合约为抵抗性下探,二品种在未寻找到下方具体技术支撑前,盘面上仍会是疲软表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,前2日我们就说内盘棕榈油1601比内盘豆油走势较强,在今天周四盘中,这种分化走势就更为明显了,在内盘豆油1601合约继续下挫时候,内盘棕榈油今天却是高开高走走强,二者盘面走势分化迹象明显,(豆油追随美盘;棕榈油追随马盘)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨天周三盘中走势可圈可点,中阳红盘上涨,马盘独立个性又彰以显现,据说厄尔尼诺现象是周三走高的原因。今天9月24日 星期四, 是马来西亚“哈芝节”,因公共假期而停盘。

小结:美盘油脂延续前期疲软走势,大陆内盘油脂品种走势分化,马盘棕榈短线走势独特。三地油脂类商品品种在短线表现上出现差异,分化走势现象较为严重,表明在复杂基本面情况下多空主力的分歧是相当严重,对后市方向不能达成共识。个人建议操作上继续保持前期对锁操作手法,继续静观盘面的整体变化;直待油脂商品重归走势的一致性。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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