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Global Markets Analysis – 25 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.04.2016 周一 全球油脂类商品一波三折;期价出现反复;短线多空转换速率较频繁

美盘原油市场,短线期价反弹上行,当期价反弹到44.00整数关一线,盘面显示出现了一定的滞涨迹象,从长周期来说-超跌触大底之后的反弹上行观点我们保持不变,但短线反弹上行之后的继续上涨动能略有些衰竭,我们谨慎观点对待短线后市走势。

美盘黄豆连报复性反弹之后见新高1043.75美分后冲高回落,4月22日的一根长阴下跌K线,表现美大豆短线出现回落整理技术走势。

美盘豆油7月合约,受美大豆反弹之后的短线下跌影响,美豆油上涨动能减弱,2天中阳K线上涨后,期价错列行下挫,盘面出现微妙变化,是继续反弹?还是追随美豆下挫?美豆油短线走势出现困惑。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,期价在较高位尽量维持前期的反弹气氛,短线多头主力仍在掌控着局面,但在美盘油脂商品的不确定性面前,内盘油脂商品短线走势也出现犹豫迹象,其中豆油与棕榈油的主力持仓数量略有减少,我们要谨防短线多头的逢高减仓行为给盘面带来的不利影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,经过短线5个交易日的跳空反弹上行后,上周五盘中低开下挫,期价呈中阴下跌,今天周一早盘又阴K线表现,盘面又出现走弱迹象,长线看多观点不变,但短线需要谨慎心态对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度走势出现微妙变化,期价欲上还跌,一时盘面走势出现不清晰信号,多空主力均出现一定的心理犹豫迹象,我们对这一盘口语言要提前保持一定的谨慎心理。(不怕涨也不怕跌,就怕欲涨还跌)个人观点认为具体操作上:前期多单暂且谨慎中持有,若后市短线期价继续下挫则多单减持离场,当前油脂商品短线走势出现模糊,当前位置-油脂商品是一个可上可下的纠结位置,我们继续关注美盘豆油的后市短线表现,提前心理上做两手准备(上-多单继续持有;下-则多单离场)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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