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Global Markets Analysis – 25 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.04.2017 周二 内盘棕榈油遭遇空头主力进场打压期价

美盘黄豆连昨日周一晚间中阳反弹上涨,而美豆油7月冲高回落终盘以带上下影响的中阴K线下跌收盘—-期价见高点32.55之后,仍未站稳32.20横盘的上沿之上。美豆油短线走势模糊(较为疲软)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周二盘面上,豆油1709合约期价变化不大,尚在可接受范围内。而棕榈油1709合约却遭遇内盘空头主力进场主动打压期价(增仓下行),内盘棕榈油的长阴下跌(创新低),令内盘油脂商品短线走势出现分化。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周一盘面停盘,今天周二盘面受内盘不利走势影响,期价低开低走,“三颗红小兵”之后的小阴K线,令短线刚刚的反弹走势陷入模糊,我们多关注一下今日晚间美盘豆油的短线指引。

小结:油脂类商品短线一波三折,在昨日晚间美豆油未能站稳横盘震荡的上沿价格32.20之上后,今日内盘棕榈油空头主力刻意发力打压期价—令油脂类商品刚刚露出的“拐点反弹走势”的小苗头再度被扑灭,看来油脂类商品的上行压力还是依然较大,多空主力分歧较为严重。我们保持谨慎的观点对待,看看美盘豆油今日晚间的具体表现。具体操作上:前期多单持有,内盘棕榈油上要保持谨慎态度。(具体观察一下美豆油到底是突破上沿还是下沿?还是要延续区间横盘状态?然后再做决定。)

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oils face short-term turmoil, after US soybean oil hovered above 32.20 last night.
• Short interest exerts pressure on China palm oil, diminishing hope of a rebound.
• We pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil with caution.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, with high caution placed especially on China palm oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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