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Global Markets Analysis – 25 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.25 周一 传闻大马贸易商采购棕榈油合同违约

近期马来西亚毛棕榈油期价急速下跌,已经跌至5年来的低位,市场悲观情绪蔓延(当前基本面情况真有2008和2009年那么糟糕?)2000令吉特以下的价格吓退贸易商,贸易商宁可赔偿采购合同违约金,也不愿意按照合同购买高价位棕榈油,这令马盘期货市场对毛棕榈油出口预期再次担忧加剧,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,今天周一早盘期价肆无忌惮狂跌,市场一边倒迹象明显。前期我们提到过,马盘毛棕榈油跌破前低后短线下方已经找不到技术上的具体支撑位,虽心理上早有此预期,但下跌幅度之大还是超乎了我们想象, 马盘期货市场达到不计成本下跌的疯狂阶段。

美盘豆油中短线属于下降趋势下的疲软格局,短线下行行情走势也早已在我们预料之中。但近几天的下跌幅度却远远没有马盘棕榈油大。大陆内盘豆油上周曾出现短线5连阳十字星止跌雏形,但在马盘领跌恐慌情绪下,今天周一早盘,多头也放弃抵抗,被动性期价掉落。

小结:马盘毛棕榈油的狂泻令全球油脂类商品雪上加霜,期价再次滑落一个台阶,油脂类商品下行行情演绎到极致阶段。在技术图表已经严重超卖多日后,市场下跌恐慌情绪更为严重,油脂类商品内外盘各个品种均被空头气氛笼罩,既然市场仍然延续下行走势,在上周止跌雏形失败后,本周操作上激进操作者在严防技术反弹要求前提思路下,可日内空单进场,日内短线操作。后市密切关注本月最后几天空头减仓的意愿情况,时刻严防技术层面多头的反扑行为。本周为关键周,我们即防空头也要防多头。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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