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Global Markets Analysis – 25 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.08.2017周五“害人之心不可有防人之心不可无”短多思维情绪下谨防瞬间变盘情况的发生

美盘豆油12月合约,当前期价仍在7月28日前高附加震荡徘徊(前高为35.58),昨日周四晚间美豆油上冲未果(期价上冲到35.49),美豆油在前高附近仍在积蓄人气,短线角度理论上来说,美豆油仍具备上破前高的技术可能,但我们也要提前保持一份内心的警惕。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,近几日出现小幅下挫整理,期价小阴K线回落到下方5日均线附近,该走势为正常现象,只要下挫幅度不超出我们预期,我们继续短多思维对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日期价低开高走中阳上涨,短线期价再创新高(2782令吉特),今天周五盘面略有走软,早盘低开后小阴K线表现—–马盘棕榈短线依托均线系统震荡盘升走势延续中,后市,随着期价不断走高,我们要做好逢高多单平仓的心理准备(越靠近上方2800整数关口越有压力)。

小结—–有消息称:美国将借助《1974年贸易法》第301条款,针对中国开展贸易战,此次指控的理由是“中国涉嫌违反美国知识产权和强制美国企业进行技术转让”。美国总统特朗普上任以来一直强调推行的贸易保护主义情绪再次抬头,我们金融市场分析人士要密切关注“中美之间贸易战”的影响程度,特别是美国农业产品中对华出口的商品(大概150亿美元贸易额度,为顺差,大豆豆油包括在内)。更有小道消息称,贸易战恐将在本周末晚些时候开始爆发。我们表示对此基本面情况发生变化的重点关注。具体操作上:短线多单暂时继续持有,而从下周开始 ,我们要做好多单逢高平仓出局的心理准备(越出现加速急涨,越一点点多单逢高派发),莫要被瞬间的不利情况把利润化为乌有(宁肯少赚,不能亏损)。

[SUMMARY]
• US threatens China trade with intellectual property probe.
• Trump’s “America First” rhetoric continues concern financial markets participants, given the extensive trade relations between the two countries, especially in agricultural commodities such as soybean and soybean oil.
• There is fear that a trade war may erupt soon.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain short-term long positions and prepare to close-out those positions in the event prices rise drastically next week.
• It is more important to secure current profits than to aim for larger ones at the moment.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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