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Global Markets Analysis – 25 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.01.2015 周日 密切关注美豆油下周表现

美盘豆油3月合约,本周连续中阴下跌,从箱体中部直接来到箱体下沿位置,距离2014年12月2日前低31.41一步之遥,来势汹汹,大有下破之势,下周不排除有挑战该位置的可能,这是当前日K线图表上的表现。但我们也更早说过在月K线图表上31.00-30.00一线存在较强支撑,考虑到美豆油已经连续4连阴,虽然短线下挫动能尚未出现完全终结信号,有可能出现瞬间毛刺,但下方空间应该不会很大,30.00位置左右(些许误差)多单接盘仍为可行计划。建议密切关注美豆油3月下周表现。(一般来讲5-7连阴也就是个极限位)

大陆内盘油脂商品周五夜间盘,在美盘豆油下挫时候,盘面表现为抵抗性下跌,期价下跌幅度不大,并未完全跟随美盘下挫,表明内盘豆油和棕榈油1505合约上主力庄家也是比较理性。在美豆油临近箱体下沿位置多空都比较谨慎,下周内盘油脂仍需要看美盘豆油的脸色。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,期价从高位冲高回落,已经连续回落整理一周多,技术分析认为回落整理的时间仍不够充分,仍需要时间上继续整理。当前期价已经来到最下方60天线附近,50% 到0.618位置应该存在理论上的支持,当前已经临近50%位置,下方的空间有,但空间大小在逐步缩窄,同样马盘毛棕榈短线走势等待美豆油的指引。

综述:全球油脂类商品短线上的下挫走势延续中,虽然我们判断下方空间不是很大,但仍不排除瞬间的下方毛刺急挫,一波大的转折行情总是这样,一方不死;另一方势不甘心(吓也要吓死对方,真等到对方一死,这波行情也就结束了), 本月最后几天是做月K线收官时候,下周油脂商品上的动荡是不可避免。大观点上建议继续保持前期观点不变。小短线上市场行情仍存在下挫可能。个人观点认为前期短线空单依旧逢盘中急挫越低越平仓了结离场。接盘多单等待止跌企稳时间及时进场(若有长下影线最好)。建议密切关注美盘豆油的下周初表现。(美原油也不排除下周借机下探可能)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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