Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 25 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.07.2016 周一 油脂类商品受利空情绪影响;短线角度出现期价下跌

由于对美国天气威胁的担忧情绪减弱,美盘大豆与美盘豆油上周五时候出现大幅下跌。美豆油12月合约以长阴K线收盘,盘中出现了短线走势上的吞没形态-老早以前我们就隐隐感觉到美盘豆油反弹上行无力,我们把美盘豆油定义为短线弱势反弹走势,上周五的的长阴吞没下跌,令美盘豆油疲软态势加剧,期价短线上出现再度的下挫走势。

7月22日上周五中国大陆第二批国储大豆竞价销售,计划销售2012年储备大豆57.91万吨,实际成交33.20万吨,成交率仅为57.34%。这与7月15日国储第一次抛售大豆情况相比,成交量大幅下降(第一次国储大豆竞价销售成交率为99.74%),本次成交率与成交价格双双出乎意料下滑,表明市场参与热情有所下降。这对期货市场上的做多热情带来利空因素。内盘豆油与棕榈油1609合约,上周五时候中阴下跌,今天周一早盘期价仍未走强,短线出现不利走势,部分多单可考虑适量减仓。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,受美盘与大陆内盘油脂商品短线走弱情绪影响,上周五时候低开低走-结束7连阳红盘上涨局面,今天周一早盘期价又跳空低开低走,盘面表现较为疲软,期价在回补了原先的跳空缺口(我们反弹预期中的第一目标)之后也出现了一定幅度的下跌,若后市短线上周五的失地不能快速收复,后市短线也存在追随美盘与内盘油脂商品走低的可能,短线交易者可适量减仓规避风险。

小结:美元指数走强,油脂类商品承压,油脂类商品当前基本情况给前期短线做多热情带来困扰,前期的反弹上行走势出现一定的变盘信号,虽然我们中长线角度看多大观点不变,但短线角度的操作者却需要保持谨慎心态-盘中的任何风吹草动都要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。观点认为具体操作上:中长线交易者多单暂时持有,而短线交易者可密切关注盘中变化,若上周五失地不能被收复-可部分多单减仓离场,以规避前期短线的多单利润化为泡影的风险。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock