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Global Markets Analysis – 25 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

25.07.2017 周二油脂类商品短线期价走势不连贯情绪化跳跃性一面表现突出

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一期价跌落下来,今天周二期价又跳上去——好像真的在跟我们开玩笑一样(原本我们期待它向上突破时候,它跳了下来,当我们往下看的时候,它又跳了回去,哎呦,这种青蛙式跳跃,让我们好难捉住它)。美盘豆油连续三天十字星“闪跳”表现,只能说明当前市场投资人士的心态不稳,一会炎热干燥天气 一会降雨,令投资人对美大豆的产量担忧呈现戏剧性变化。让美盘豆油继续表演吧——我们延续昨日的操作观点:站稳前高之上(高点34.44之上)我们多单跟进,在高点下方我们空单持有。


马盘毛棕榈油9月(或基准10月),上周三 周四 周五连续三天的期价运行,本身存在反身向上的运行轨迹。可昨日周一的意外跳空下挫,令我们以为前高受阻(7月11日前高2614一线),今天周二的再度意外向上跳空高开上涨,期价再度靠近整数关2600一线,马盘棕榈油受外围周边市场的情绪化波动也很强烈。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势变幻莫测,多空转换的盘面痕迹较为突然,令短线操作难度增大。整体来说:当前油脂类商品仍处于下方60天均线与上方前高点 二者之间期价波动运行,存在下有心理支撑,上有技术阻挡的尴尬层面。考虑到日K线图表上多头排列的均线系统,较容易支撑期价走高的可能—–我们并不能排除震荡波动之后而突破前高的可能,所以我们密切关注7月11日高点位置的市场表现,则成为重中之重。上破看多,阻挡看跌成为我们当前的主要观点。具体操作上:昨日激进型新进空单持有,若后市突破前高点站稳后可迅速平仓反手追多,若一直 前高点下方波动震荡则继续空单谨慎持有。

• The unpredictability of edible oils, at least in the short-term, is making it difficult for us to strategize.
• Edible oils are hovering below the 60-day moving average and above the previous high.
• The downside is supported by market sentiment while the upside is resisted by technical factors.
• The July 11 high remains a focal point.
• Outlook: Long if high is breached, short if low is touched.

• Traders may retain short positions initiated on the previous day.
• Traders may switch from short to long, should the market break above the high. Otherwise, short positions may be retained.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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