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Global Markets Analysis – 25 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周二 敏感时刻 耐心等待盘面给出信号

中国大陆现货市场豆油和棕榈油现货价格有所下调,成交清淡。期货市场豆油 棕榈油一如既往保持B浪的回调,期价在60天线位置已经连续3天受到短暂支撑。

马盘毛棕榈油6月周一冲高回落,由于前期回落幅度小于内盘和美盘,昨天期价出现补跌,也来到40天线位置,和美豆油基本一致。 豆油棕榈油相互竞争互相影响抢占市场份额,无论从现货基本价格还是期货技术层面,豆油棕榈油价格走势都应该基本相同,一涨一跌的概率不大,因为一方价格基差过高,则会被另一方抢去市场份额。

对于美豆油来说,期价回落到40天线处,离下方60天线仅一步之遥, 短线观察,美豆油仍未出现止跌企稳信号,后市仍不排除继续回落考验60天线处的支撑,但从B浪回抽整理确认角度来说,当前油脂商品整体回落到“底部区域”,也就是我们前期预测的50%到0.618第一目标位置, 当市场快到达该位置时候,我们操作上要保持谨慎。

小结: 油脂商品继续保持B浪回落整理态势,盘面观察,已经接近B浪的尾声,后市最多再惯性回落1–2个动作,美盘 马盘下探60天线 大陆内盘瞬间下破60天线, 则B浪就该基本结束。个人看法: 波段和短线操作者空单时刻保持逢低平仓出局状态,越出现急跌越了结。 场外观望许久的趋势性操作者,思维上提前开始做好多单逢低进场的准备,待盘面出现恐慌性急挫迹象时(就跟2周前冲高疯狂动作类似,这次是恐慌下探,二者性质相同但方向相反),我们尽量在最完美时刻动手,思想上先动起来而实际操作上再耐心等待几日。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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