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Global Markets Analysis – 25 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.05.2015 周一 美盘豆油下跌;马盘毛棕榈恐将走低

上周五时分,美盘大豆中阴下跌,创盘中新低。美盘豆油7月合约被拖累,周五夜盘也中阴回落下挫,期价逐步临近自3月17日开始反弹的短线上升趋势线附近,短线角度的下探回落整理延续中。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,今天周一早盘也出现了下跌,但盘中下跌幅度要小于美盘豆油幅度,盘面上的多头抵抗更为明显,期价回落到多头排列下的40天均线处暂存支撑。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月合约,前期反弹时候不明显与涨幅不大,本轮回落的幅度也不会很大,属于长期下跌之后的酝酿趋势拐点阶段(长线角度),短线角度上则属于低位的横盘震荡阶段,考虑到周边市场的疲软,马盘毛棕榈油8月周一早盘恐将走低,但回落幅度不会太大。

纽约原油短线走势依旧呈牛皮震荡盘升格局,盘中期价变化不大,短线走势无新意。

小结:美元指数自10天前止跌企稳后,当前短线反弹走势较为明显,上方技术压力位在60天均线处。美元的走强令全球大宗商品短线承压。其中油脂类商品回落整理行情延续中,仍未出现完结信号,个人认为短线仍保持下探回落整理观点不变。观点认为在油脂商品整理阶段,不建议频繁操作,无仓者场外观望为宜,持前期接盘多单者继续以静制动关注盘中变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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