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Global Markets Analysis – 25 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.11.2014 周二 棕榈油 豆油当前概况

棕榈油方面:

中国国家粮油信息中心11月25日周二消息,截止到本周初大陆各主要港口棕榈油库存约为50万吨左右,比上周小幅增加1%百分点,较上月同期下降约2万吨,较去年同期的88万吨库存下降45%个百分点。昨日各地棕榈油价格稳中有涨,天津地区24度棕榈油报价5350元/吨,江苏张家港报价5400元/吨,广州地区报价5250元/吨。从报告内容分析可以看出,当前中国大陆棕榈油总库存并不宽松,对需求尚够不成压力,价格之所以未出现明显上涨,主要集中焦点在需求方面没有完全改观,其次是豆油与棕榈油的价格比效应,豆油较低的价格拖累了棕榈油价格。

内盘棕榈油1505主力合约,期价多日来维持在相同水平,价格波动不大,盘中未出现明显的上涨或者下跌,短线的震荡整理迹象明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日中阴下跌跌破前期40天线的支撑,今天周二期价下挫到60天线关键位置,马盘令吉特汇率走强以及出口量的下降是当前马盘毛棕榈油期价下滑的主要原因。技术上观察马盘1月,日图表期价上冲60天线后形成短线的趋势反转迹象,上冲之后均线系统由空头排列转为多头排列,上冲均线之后的回落均线,为一个正常的回落验证过程,在趋势行情下,小波段性回落来验证下方60天均线的支撑作用,这属于期货市场上非常常见的运行节奏。后市短线上,密切关注马盘1月在60天线关键技术位的表现,该位置应该存在较强的支撑。

豆油方面:

美国大豆今年创记录的产量已成定局,在庞大的供应压力面前,大豆价格上行举步艰难。豆油受其拖累期价在几年来的低位维持震荡。当前大陆国内各大油厂豆油的压榨利润大幅降低,后期的压榨开工总量与年末需求增长之间存在不确定因素较多,这也是当前内盘豆油期货市场上多空主力对后市看法分歧最大的地方。

内盘豆油1505主力合约,受中线下降趋势的影响,短线上仍延续前期的下探整理,在需求未明显改观前,此走势恐将延续一段时间。

美盘豆油1月,昨日晚间中阳上张,前期空头排列的均线系统已经收窄趋于粘合,当前期价已经站于日图表粘合的均线之上,但 从前期的成交密集区观察,技术图当前仍处于箱体内的震荡走势,在未明显突破上下沿之前,在窄区间箱体内震荡之下,仍建议场外观望。

小结:油脂类商品短线延续前期下探震荡整理走势,在无明显突破前,个人观点仍建议场外观望。后市突破上沿追多;突破下沿追空;箱体内运行观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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