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Global Markets Analysis – 25 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.11.2016 油脂商品昨日冲高回落;但不改短线反弹上扬态势

11月第四个星期四也就是昨天是美国的传统节日“感恩节”,美盘金融市场停盘一天,今天周五晚间美盘开盘,继续关注美盘豆油1月合约长阳K线之后的表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周四早盘高开高走,期价创近期新高后,出现冲高回落走势,终盘均以带上影线的阳K线收盘。并且内盘棕榈油的回落幅度明显大于豆油-从昨日持仓量变化观察,“减仓下行”-表现为多头逢高兑现筹码动作发生,部分投资人瞬间获暴利后有多头出逃迹象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日周四盘中大幅跳空高开,在接近3100令吉特高点之后,也同样出现冲高回落现象,但有所不同的是马盘棕榈昨日是“增仓下行”表现, 这种盘口语言是空头增仓卖出而产生的后果-不排除马盘棕榈昨日有部分多头主力卖出套保(这里简单多啰嗦几句,讲述一下套期保值的意思-棕榈油生产商在3100一线放空单-后市期价只会有2种变化-1.期价下跌则空单获利2.期价继续上涨而手中生产的棕榈油会卖个更好价格;但由于后市期价的不确定性谁也没长后眼并且3100价格在部分套保者心中已经达到一个较为完美的数字,因此生产者就把这个能心理喜欢的价格利润给锁定,也就是说无论后市期价是跌是涨,他3100的价格已经有了保障–简单一句话:跌期货市场获利,涨现货市场获利,利润锁定在3100价格给企业做了个套期保值,有利于企业的后续发展)。

小结:从昨日内盘与马盘油脂商品的走势表现上来看,在大幅上涨和跳空高开后,存在部分短线多头出逃与空单进场的盘口语言-造成期价波动剧烈,表明当期价由于上涨过快而远离日K线图表上均线之后,有兑现或“锁定”利润的心理诉求(毕竟好久没见到这么大的单日涨幅而利润丰厚),这种现象也是“人之常情”,谁也不会嫌钱扎手,这种敏感性激进操作模式可以理解。我们从美盘豆油的一根长阴K线上涨来看,美盘豆油的短线上涨才刚刚拉开序幕,后市仍有很大的上涨空间(仅仅期价有点远离均线),我们继续保持短多思维模式不变,前期多单继续持有,不理会盘中部分多头提前兑现利润的操作手法(其实也是一种更为积极的手法),后市期价仍会见到比这高的价格,我们要做的仅仅保持一份耐心便可。

[SUMMARY]
• Judging from the strong uptrend and gap up at open of China and Malaysia edible oils, short-term long position holders were forced to take profit or cut loss as selling pressure grew as the markets underwent correction.
• From a technical point of view, there is considerable room for US soybean oil to continue the uptrend.
• We maintain our view of short-term long position.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions, unaffected by profit taking by other participants in the market.
• Anticipating even higher price levels, we shall patiently observe the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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