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Global Markets Analysis – 25 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.25 周四 油脂商品向下做了个空头陷阱

外媒9月24日消息,摩根士丹利发布投资报告中下调了美国2014年度玉米和大豆的播种面积预测数据,这与私营分析机构Informa经纪公司以及古尔科集团(Gulke Group)预测的数据相同,这引发市场猜测美国农业部可能高估了美国大豆和玉米的播种面积。

早在上周前,美国农场服务部(FSA)发布的播种数据,就曾引起对今年大豆玉米播种面积的争议,几家机构认为美国农业部高估播种面积为120万英亩-400万英亩不等。

在扑朔迷离的数据面前,本周期货市场油脂商品走势也出现了复杂局面,油脂商品走势略显混乱与反复。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油1501合约,在上周四从平台箱体的上沿突破失败而掉下来,到本周一时候又跌破箱体下沿涨上去,行情走势出现了大的反复,向上向下均做了陷进,宽幅震荡的短线走势明显,当前期价仍处于原成交密集区内上下震荡状。

马来西亚吉隆坡9月24日消息,马来西亚棕榈油协会(MPOA)发布数据,9月1日至20日,马来西亚毛棕榈油产量比8月同期降低12.2%,而8月份当时的数据是203万吨,比7月份产量激情22.2的百分点,9月份的毛棕榈油产量下降出乎人意料。而出口方面9月25日周四上午,船运调查机构ITS发布数据显示,马来西亚9月份前25天棕榈油出口量为 1, 278,703吨,比上月同期增产30%。

毛棕榈油9月份产量意外降低,而出口受零关税影响而大增,这对马盘毛棕榈油基准12月形成利好支持,期价在昨天红盘上涨收复40天线失地,今天早盘出现了冲击上方60天线2200的欲望,若9月18日高点能被有效突破,则说明9月18日以来短暂的3天下挫为空头陷阱,反弹行情有恢复的迹象。

美盘豆油本周一下蹲,大有下破前低态势,而随后2天短线走高,今天早盘亚洲电子盘高开,对内盘和马盘今天的走高存在支持作用。

小结:当前短线上油脂商品走势较为混乱,行情走势更多出现反复。大陆内盘豆油和棕榈油向上向下对箱体的“有效”突破均不成立,主力更多的先设置多头陷阱,后设置空头陷阱。当前盘面观察,成交密集区域内的宽幅震荡更为合理,个人建议横盘宽幅震荡下宜少动多看,观望为上。马盘毛棕榈油多空短线争夺40天线,出现多头胜利苗头,9月18日高点一过,存在前期反弹恢复迹象,前高若有效突破则该品种上短线空单便不宜再留。 密切关注该品种对60天线突破情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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