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Global Markets Analysis – 25 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


25.09.2015 周五 中国访美代表团与美国公司签署大豆购买协议

中国习总书记正在访美,昨日周四,同去的中国商贸团与美国公司签署了购买1318万吨美国大豆的协议,采购量创出历史最高纪录,货物总值为53亿美元左右。受出口需求改善的利多因素影响提振了美盘油脂商品走高。昨日晚间美盘黄豆与美盘豆油双双上涨,其中美盘豆油12月合约期价中阳上涨后,前期短线的疲软走势有一定改善,若今日晚间期价能延续上涨,则短线的下挫走势恐将结束。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1601合约,今天周五早盘高开高走红盘大幅上涨,其中豆油1601合约“一阳吞二阴”,在短暂下挫之后强势特征再现。棕榈油1601合约,在昨日强势特征就非常明显,今天盘中又高开高走中阳上涨,短线出现变盘,后市期价反弹欲望强烈。

马盘昨日因公共假期停盘,今天开盘后,毛棕榈油基准12月后市有望继续走高。

小结:受利多因素影响,美盘油脂商品短线存在下探之后的走高意愿,并且马盘与内盘油脂商品已经提前演绎变盘信号。我们前期说过,本波短线的下挫反手空单不为盈利,只为对锁前期多单的利润,尽量在规避中长线角度多单持仓的风险。只等美盘技术信号明确后才解锁。截止到今天,美盘油脂商品出现走强苗头(前期该品种与马盘走势有分化),对内盘与马盘油脂商品来说,建议今天可逢盘中低点平仓了结短线空单,后市油脂出现走强迹象。个人观点认为短线空单离场,中长线多单继续持有。部分激进短线操作者可适当多单跟进。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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