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Global Markets Analysis – 26 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.04.2017 周三 美盘豆油昨日晚间十字星收盘

昨日周二晚间,美豆油7月合约以十字星K线报收,期价维持在31.80一线。短线上观察美豆油—-期价继续在31.20—32.20窄区间内横盘震荡,仍未给出明确的方向指引,低位横盘波动震荡式的酝酿底部拐点行情延续。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在本周一(4.24日)美豆油冲高回落的中阴K线之后(冲击上沿未果),见昨日周二晚间美豆油并未持续下跌,内盘昨日的恐慌情绪有所缓解,今天周三盘面上以小阳K线表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周二盘中的跳空低开令前三日的阳K线上涨终止,今天周三盘中十字星状态右侧横盘,马棕榈追随性波动较为明显。

小结:美盘豆油“脉冲式”期价上下波动,欲打破技术横盘状态,可惜当前基本面未给予有力支持,未出现像美黄豆连那种“对勾”式反弹(美豆油横盘状态)。考虑到当前基本面利空因素已经完全出尽,仅仅是利多因素还不明显,我们继续保持低位横盘酝酿拐点观点不变。另外,由于内盘菜籽油当前期价已经跌破成本区域,因此上我们不对内盘豆油棕榈油期价再盲目下看空间很大。操作上:继续多单持仓不动,同时密切关注美豆油的短线走势情况。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continues to move in sideway range, with no clear sign of a rebound in sight.
• Considering the full extent of bearish factors but a lack of bullish factors, our outlook remains: seeking a low point.
• As China vegetable oils fall below breakeven point, we see a limited downside for China soybean oil and palm oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position while paying close attention to the short-term performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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