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Global Markets Analysis – 26 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.26 周二 马棕榈油昨日金针探底可靠性有待验证

昨日马盘毛棕榈油基准11月上午盘疯狂下挫,盘中见新低点1954令吉,市场一片恐慌情绪。后下午盘在空头减仓和多头护盘双重力量下期价探底回升,终盘以带长下影线的阳K线收盘于2027令吉。(2000令吉特以下价格存在空头陷阱嫌疑)“金针探底”K线的出现,令短线支撑于1950一线稍微企稳,但单日K线的探底表现的可靠性和真实性仍需要市场随后几天来验证才能明确。

大陆内盘豆油1501合约,周一早盘一跃而下,期价大幅跳空低开,瞬间下挫后,全天低开高走,多头护盘迹象仍很明显,终盘以中阳上涨收盘。周二早盘期价再次回到上周横盘交易区间内,短线的下跌企稳迹象仍强于其他油脂类品种。

内盘棕榈油1501合约,上周五夜盘交易的光头光脚阴K线,在本周一走势中略有改善,虽没有像马盘棕榈11月那样红盘报收,但也留下一个下影线。令短线行情存在想象空间。

美盘豆油周一晚间期价变化不大,它即没有出现大幅下跌,也未出现明显上涨,终盘以带上下影线的小阳K线收盘,表明当前市场仍处于上有压力 下有支撑横盘整理阶段。

小结:从油脂类商品各个品种周一的具体表现来看,我们对当前各品种盘面走势的担忧还是很有必要的。周日和周一我们曾提到过,本周为交易敏感周,我们既要防止空头的刻意打压,也要防止多头的瞬间反扑。从昨天周一内盘和马盘的探底回升走势来说,正好体现了我们的担忧,我们前几日开始就建议操作思路为,“看空不追空” 就是为了规避这种瞬间反扑带来的风险,特别是内盘豆油。行情走到今天,我们的操作思路仍然未变:即当前中线和短线下降趋势下的期价下行是为后期长线的上涨寻找底部支撑行为,在下方具体支撑未明确前,我们目前短线仍保持看空观点不变。此阶段行情是酝酿短、中和长三周期层次的“拐点”阶段,当前油脂商品期价已经到达下跌极限位置(或接近极限位置),不可再盲目看空后市,但市场未出现明显受到大支撑止跌前,也不可盲目接盘进多,我们所提到的敏感阶段也就是指的此含义。个人看法是昨天油脂商品的探底回升包含2层含义,1.上午盘的刻意打压有空头陷阱嫌疑。2.昨天下午盘回升的可靠性尚待后市的验证。单日的K线表现还不足以说明“拐点”的成立,因此稳健者继续观望,激进者也不再建议日内操作。 密切关注本周最后几天的市场表现,探明空头的离场意愿跟多头的进场意愿后再进场不迟。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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