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Global Markets Analysis – 26 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.01.2016 周二 油脂类商品弱势下的反弹行情延续中;继续保持短多观点不变

美盘豆油3月合约,短线的反弹上行走势延续中,期价震荡上扬重心上移。从期价的上涨幅度观察,期价上涨幅度不够理想,我们暂确认为弱势横盘整理下的小幅走高行为,仍以短线角度的短多看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,期价依托日K线图表上均线系统运行,多空主力对后市看法分歧较大,造成期价反复波动。内盘油脂商品表现为上有压力而下有支撑,在全球经济不景气情况下,内盘油脂商品的这种走势也可以理解。我们暂且以短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,继23号、24号、25号三天停盘后,今天1月26日开盘,期价平开高走红盘运行,期价运行在2460一线,位于60天均线的上方。短线上仍显强势。其实对马棕榈来说,在全球大宗商品普遍下跌的情况下,马来西亚棕榈油还属于一个走势较强的品种,相当于其他商品下跌幅度还算一个较小的品种。短线角度来说,虽然马棕榈4月曾在上周末时分做过一个向下的假动作来欺骗我们,但随后的小幅上涨令期价又站在60天均线上方,只要这个止损位不被完全下破,我们短线角度仍以短多观点对待。

小结:国际原油市场纽约原油继续超跌之后的波动震荡,美原油连的持续疯狂暴跌,已经不是某些财团或者散户投资者受到损失,全球大部分原油出口国均受到伤害。甚至部分国家已经到了濒临破产的地步,在国际原油市场上围绕的背后黑手阴影太凶残,已经完全超出全球投资人士的理解。受国际原油疲软影响,油脂类商品整体走势也整体较弱。超跌之后的技术反弹总是不能呈现波段性凌厉走势,这种情况到底持续多久,经济学者已经目瞪口呆。在这种悲观情绪下,我们依旧要保持清醒头脑,不盲目操作。我们一定要清楚:既然是商品,就会存在商品本身的使用价值,使用价值可以在一定时期被高估或者低估,但一定不会被低估到零。对植物类油脂商品,我们继续保持弱势下的震荡筑大底长线观点,短线角度我们以横盘震荡下的短线短多观点看待。个人观点认为操作上:中长线低位多单继续持有,短线的多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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