Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 26 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.07.2016 周二 油脂商品走弱;期货市场其它大宗商品普遍下跌

当前国际原油价格下滑,其中纽约原油期价延续下挫,伦敦铜与锌也从高位出现下跌,日本橡胶连续3天中阴K线,贵金属黄金白银短线走势也呈回落整理态势,美元指数维持在较高位(97.00)置徘徊震荡,这对全球大宗商品带来一定下行压力。美黄豆连延续前期下行走势,美盘豆油也不可避免。美豆油12月合约,在上周五长阴K线乌云盖顶吞没形态出现后,昨日周一盘中又继续长阴下跌,2日的大幅急跌已经把前期多日的反弹上行高地尽失,美豆油短线变盘信号已经变得非常明显,后市期价存在惯性下跌概率大增。

大陆内盘商品市场也是风云突变,除了白糖商品仍维持在近2年的高位外,其余大宗商品均出现不同程度的下跌。油脂类商品也未曾避免,其中豆油与棕榈油1609合约,连续几天的阴K线表现,表明内盘油脂商品短线受到空头主力猛烈打压,前期的反弹上行已经半途夭折,后市期价在短线角度来说仍有进一步的下挫要求,我们昨日盘中短线多单减仓后,场外观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,7月21日回补技术缺口之后,7月22日上周五的一根不起眼的小阴K线下跌-单日的小幅下跌还不足以说明前期的反弹结束,但昨天周一跳空下跌的中阴K线的意义就发生新的变化了,宣告前期的短线反弹终结,后市期价轨迹转为再次下挫,今天周二盘中虽然期价低开高走小阳K线表现,短线的疲软态势已经明晰,昨日早盘我们曾建议当上周五失地不能快速收复-有必要短线交易者多单减仓出局,以规避前期反弹利润化为泡影的风险。后市期价有再探新低可能。

小结:美元指数维持强势,全球大宗商品承压,给油脂类商品带来短线下行风险,美盘豆油前期的弱势反弹走势宣告失败,后市期价存在再次下探寻底要求-当前油脂类商品走势上多空转换频率较快,我们很早就说过-我们把油脂类商品操作模式重点放在短线交易上,暂且不考虑太长周期层面。从油脂商品日K线图表观察,本波的突然反弹失败造成的期价下跌-是追随周K线图表的下挫探底过程(日图表上短线反弹,周图表上中期下探寻底;二者在方向上存在反驳,不排除日图表上的反弹半途夭折的可能,看来早先的担忧成为了可能),但我们相信本波的短线下跌调整时间上不会太长,待短线回落之后-耐心等待日图表与周图表二者共同从新低位反身上行的机会(后话)。对当前油脂商品行情来说-昨日周一建议的部分多单减仓离场后的稳健型无仓交易者可场外观望。手中还有老多单的交易者与多单出局后的部分激进型交易者可适量空单进场尝试,以形成新的双向锁单或者单边短线空单交易模式-尽量沿着期价短线的运行轨迹来跟踪交易-共同关注本波下挫的探底幅度。本波的短线下跌将会出现日K线图表上的“底背离”-这是我们平空反多的最佳机会。我们这里只是先简单描述一下未来后市将要发生的,希望大家能明白。后市重点转为密切关注本波美盘豆油下探深度上来。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock