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Global Markets Analysis – 26 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周三美盘 马盘尚未动 内盘却出现率先动作

昨天美盘豆油和马盘毛棕榈油仍在多头排列下的均线系统40天线位置徘徊,离下方强力支撑技术位60天线仅一步之遥,我们昨天说过,再有1–2个动作就下探到该位置,在美盘及马盘还未到该位置时刻,大陆内盘今天早盘就出现了迫不及待的盘口语言。

昨天大陆内盘豆油1409合约继续在60天线位置受到支撑,期价在该位置已经运行3天。棕榈油1409合约昨天瞬间首次下破60天线,然后又快速收回,终盘以带上下影线的十字星K线收盘,表明多空主力在该位置换手,实力相当不分胜负。由于已经连续3天在该位置受到支撑,周三早盘大陆内盘油脂出现了新动作,期价早盘高开高走,在外盘还未明确做出指引前,就率先出现上冲动作。 大有提前结束B浪回落整理的苗头,昨日十字星低点是否就是本波回落的低点,我们尚待一两天的验证。

小结:当我们越担心什么,行情就越出现什么。在美盘和马盘油脂商品尚未到达最完美时刻, 在这个B浪回落的“底部区域”,大陆内盘油脂率先有启动迹象,内盘能否带动美盘和马盘提前结束B浪回抽确认,我们尚需要1–2天的盘面观察其真实性。 但在操作上,波段性和短线类操作者中,空单未平仓干净的,在今天最起码早盘就该把剩余空单全部平仓了结了。在期货市场有句术语“平多就是看空”(2周前), “平空就是看多”(现在), 这是一种思维和具体操作的连贯性表现,短线激进操作者可适当平空反手少量进多。 对于趋势性操作者,已经在场外观望本波回抽确认2个多礼拜了,为稳妥起见,可在思维和操作的连贯性上故意人为的间隔一下(留一点时间出来 来具体判断内盘动作的真实性),既然在B浪底端准备接回多单已经等待许久了,也不在乎多等一半天,既然你是稳健型操作者就干脆把稳健做到完美,待内外盘油脂整体都出现明确上涨信号后再多单接回。 此二类操作者思维方式和操作手法是不相同的,望投资人依据自己的操作思维习惯对号入座。 但二者大前提观点仍是相同的,即现阶段进入B浪回落整理的尾声阶段。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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