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Global Markets Analysis – 26 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.05.2015 周二 油脂类商品走势内强外弱

昨日大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,在美盘上周五中阴下跌情况下仅小幅下跌,盘中抵抗性回落整理走势明显,并未出现像美盘大豆与豆油7月那样大的跌幅。 这与当前基本面分不开的。美盘油脂受美元走强、全球大豆供应充足、美国大豆播种进度良好三大利空因素影响而走软。而中国大陆因各港口大豆供应紧张,国内豆农播种意愿消极等利多因素影响而走势略强。据有关消息人士传言,当前北方大豆播种面积今年将大幅度减少,豆农改播玉米积极性提高,据东北地区专业考察人士了解,今年大豆播种面积恐将与往年相比减少10%-15%以上。

今天周二早盘,内盘豆油与棕榈油1509合约,早盘跳空高开,而后在多头增仓以及空头减仓盘支持下,率先走强长阳上涨,一举扭转短线的疲软,基本符合我们之前的研判走势,前期接盘多单继续持仓不动。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月合约,在上周五美盘大跌不利影响下,昨日周一盘中仅仅跳空低开,并未明显走低,终盘以小阳K线收盘。今天周二受大陆内盘走强带动(当然也离不开马来西亚棕榈油出口数据良好利多影响),跳空高开中阳上涨,前期颓势略有扭转。

小结:内盘与马盘油脂类商品率先走强,前期短线的回落整理有被扭转的迹象。个人前期提示,本波的回落整理下方空间不会很大,仅仅是个短线技术上的正常下探整理,个人继续保持此观点不变。个人建议前期低位接盘中长线多单继续持仓不动。今天短线激进型操作者(前几日部分减持多单者)可少许多单跟随盘面新的变化接盘跟进,逢低短多操作模式。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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