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Global Markets Analysis – 26 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.05.2016 周四 全球油脂类商品短线出现变盘的走强信号苗头

美盘黄豆连在高位短线横盘十几个交易日之后,昨日周三晚间长阳飙涨3.01%(1086.50美分),当前美国大豆播种工作已经接近尾声阶段,播种面积明朗之后,后期的炒作将会逐步转移到天气方面,任何不利的天气情况都将提振美豆的走势。受美大豆上涨提振,美盘豆油7月合约周三晚间同样红盘报收,期价略微出现止跌苗头,(前期我们说过美豆油回落目标大概位于30.20-30.00一线,当期价回落到30.80一线时候已经非常接近该目标,当市场部分人士都抱有该思维时候,部分逢低买盘的出现,市场价格也许就跌不到该位置了),昨日晚间的中阳仅仅是个警示信号,观察美豆油今日晚间是否出现第二根延续的红盘K线变盘信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,本次的下探走势调整的较为充分,低位之后拒绝再大幅度下挫,盘面表现稍强,昨日夜盘的跳空高开又率先出现走强迹象,不排除后市在短线超跌之后的反弹技术走高要求,当前国内各主要港口的 豆油与棕榈油现货成交价格基本稳定。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,5月25日周三盘终低开高走带下影线红盘中阳上涨报收,当下影线出现时候,盘中增仓迹象明显,增仓上行的盘口语言-表明有短线多头逢低进场,昨日马棕榈8月期价已经击破前低2530一线的阻挡(前期是从该支撑位置跌落下来;支撑阻挡角色转换较快),观察马棕榈7月的表现则为下破上升趋势线后,昨日期价又再度上穿趋势线,继续关注今日盘中期价是否能站于2个关键技术位之上(站之上为强,站之下为弱)。

小结:美盘豆油低位收阳,内盘豆油与棕榈油率先走强,马盘棕榈一阳包多阴并且带下影线-全球油脂类商品短线出现止跌后的走强苗头,这是我们早早就密切关注的,早在前几日我们就开始建议逢低空单时刻准备离场的操作理念,在整体油脂商品出现第一变盘信号时候,我们继续建议空单全部离场,并且若今日周四盘中油脂商品还能走强的话,短线操作者当中的激进型交易者可适量多单跟进,后市存在下探整理结束后的转强走势可能,我们继续关注美盘豆油后续(今日晚间)是否出现错列的红盘表现-那时候就能真正的提示我们油脂商品开始变盘走强。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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