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Global Markets Analysis – 26 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.10.2015 周一 中国央行:10月24日起下调金融机构人民币存款准备金

自10月24日(周六)起,中国央行宣布,金融机构一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至4.35%;一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至1.5%;个人住房公积金贷款利率保持不变。同日起,下调金融机构人民币存款准备金0.5个百分点。从中国央行公布数据分析-居民存款利率下调对个人的银行存款利空,贷款利率下调对负债率高或者急于融资的企业是利好,其中特别对房地产、钢铁、煤炭行业整体利多。下调金融机构人民币存款准备金0.5个百分点,这是国家刺激经济、扩大内需、释放流动性的信号,保守估计下调0.5个百分点将增加社会流动性7000亿元。这对中国经济、股票市场、大宗商品价格的后市走势整体呈现利多。

从我们较为关心的商品期货市场上油脂类商品走势观察,从上周五(10月23日)当天的走势来说,却出现了疲软痕迹,大陆内盘油脂豆油与棕榈油1601合约,周五高开低走,把周四的红盘上涨阳K线给吞没掉,今天周一盘中又低开低走,下行迹象就变得更为明显,表明后市短线期价仍有下挫空间,前期的回落调整还没有完全到位。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,周四10月22日时候还在高位运行,虽然小阴K线,但尚不能确定反弹结束。但上周五时候,个人担心的问题出现了,期价又直接跳跃下来,这一简单的跳跃,就令短线行情出现了微妙变化,果然今天周一,马盘棕榈油12月又低开低走小幅下跌,令短线反弹上行的期望毁于一旦。

美盘油脂商品大豆与豆油12月合约,前期一直就萎靡不振,短线走势十分模糊,好不容易在10月20至21两日红盘上涨错列走高下看到盘面出现转强继续,但随后的2天的走势又给人泼一盆冷水,今天周一亚洲电子盘呈小K阴线运行,今日晚间美盘的表现肯定还不如人意,多半下跌成为可能。

美盘原油连短线错列震荡下行整理延续,期价重心从前几日上冲到50.00高点后又下挫到44.70附近,纽约原油下挫短线行情延续中。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势出现较大的反复,前2日的假突破走势直接给我们出现误导信号,从今天周一盘面技术观察,盘面的疲软已经非常清晰,后市短线期价仍有走低空间。我们10月22日刚刚由短空转为短多看待油脂商品,10月23周五的瞬间下跌,以及今天周一的再次下跌,让我们出现了一次错误的操作,后市短线还得短空看待。个人观点认为:22日追随盘面走势跟进的多单,今天减仓出局。部分心不甘的散户朋友也可以不平多单,把此单作为长线单,但短线上一定要放空一定比例的短线空单,二者再次形成对锁单,以规避短线角度的期价下行风险。(我个人就是今天短空进场形成了锁单操作)待后市下挫结束后再平掉空单,后市的短线观点我们以短空看待,在收获季节的尾声期价仍有一定的回落空间,特此说明。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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