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Global Markets Analysis – 26 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.10.2016 周三 获利筹码的提前兑现;造成盘面上人心不稳期价冲高回落

美盘大豆从2个月来的低点区域震荡反弹上行,当前期价已经冲上1000美分之上,美豆的反弹上扬走势延续中。美盘豆油12月受美豆上涨提振,短线走势上也延续反弹上行态势,虽然盘中期价有所反复,但仍未出现明显的上攻动能衰竭的迹象,我们谨慎中继续保持短多思路对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在短线走势上就没有那么稳健了, 昨日周二盘中在获利盘涌出逢高兑现筹码过程中,期价出现大幅波动,市场人气不稳,稍微一个风吹草动都会造成慌乱,我们前几日就早早提醒过一定要谨防短线多头主力的兑现获利筹码的动作发生,我们在短多思维不变前提下;继续保持该观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,受国际原油下挫整理影响以及大陆内盘油脂商品的冲高回落影响,昨日周二盘中同样出现期价反复现象,在周一的长阳上涨之后,昨日的中阴下跌也在提醒我们,内心深处也要保持一定的谨慎态度,毕竟在10月初那几天低点位置埋伏进去的多单到目前已经有200多点的获利,一定要防范到手的利润再被市场夺回。

小结:全球油脂类商品的短线反弹上行走势延续中,截止到目前仍存在反弹动能,并未出现明显的技术变盘信号,我们继续保持短多思维对待。还是那句话“一颗红心两手准备”内心深处还是要保持一份谨慎,毕竟短线的利润已经很大,你不平仓兑现总会有人兑现-对这一动作的发生,我们还是要保持谨慎态度。观点认为操作上:我们建议分三步走1.上周末期价下滑时候平掉的少量多单作为防御型多单减仓。2.期价快速上冲过程中的逢高减仓作为进攻型多单减仓。3.剩余一部分多单关注美盘的最新变化在随时准备平仓。这样下来三种减仓方式的平均价格也不会很低,这是我们对当前市场心态不稳情况下的建议(涨的时候手中一直有多单持有,当稍微有变盘信号就第一时间出逃,中庸之道为上策;两不耽误)。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils remain in a short-term upward reversal trend, showing no signs of switching gear.
• We shall maintain our short-term long position outlook.
• We shall remain cautious, keeping in mind that short-term profits are attractive enough for traders to close-out positions, with some market participants having already done so.

[ACTION]
• We can design our trading strategy in three ways.
• First, traders may close-out remaining long positions that were left from the decline towards the end of last week.
• Second, traders may close-out some of the long positions that were entered into during the price surge.
• Third, traders may be prepared to close-out some long positions, depending on the conditions of US markets.
• Adopting any one of the three strategies mentioned above would not likely result in a low average exit price, as a means of facing uncertainties in the market.
• We may hold on to long positions when the market is going up, but should also be prepared to close-out positions as soon as undesirable signals emerge.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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