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Global Markets Analysis – 26 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.10.2017周四美盘豆油冲高回落并未站稳趋势线上方

美盘豆油12月合约,本周一中阳上涨惯性冲破原趋势线的阻挡后,接下来的周二周三2天期价均阴K线表现,不能站稳关键技术位上方——表明该阻挡位置果然存在一定的技术压力(符合我们此前预期)。当前美国大豆收割面积已经达到80%左右,在10月份的最后几天里,收获工作将接近尾声。今日周四晚间美国农业部(USDA)将公布周度销售报告。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周三期价继续红盘补涨,我们的操作建议依旧是逢高派发兑现出局。今日周四盘面出现获利回吐现象,截止上午盘面期价小阴K线下跌,我们建议部分激进型可适量反手空单进场试盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或12月),马棕榈油12月,今天是我们最后一次提及该合约。在连续三天建议多单逢高平仓了结之后,此前的短多操作已经完全结束。马棕榈1月,今天周四盘面恐将出现追随性下跌,我们同样建议马盘棕榈可适量反手空单进场试盘。

小结:美盘豆油未能完全站稳趋势线上方,该关键技术经过三天的反复测试—–盘面显示存在一定技术压力,不排除遭到空头主力的打压。经过连续三天来,我们分批量逢高多单建议出局后,相信出场的平均价格不至于令我们前期短多操作出现亏损(盈利也不是很多)。从今天起,我们短多观点转为“冲高受阻”的短空观点。具体操作上:多单全部兑现出局后,部分激进型交易者可今天反手短空进场试盘,后市美盘豆油不排除受阻回落的发生。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oils keep tested the previous high in the past 3 days, it still can’t break through the previous high.
• After the market failed to break through the previous high, we recommended traders to close-out all long positions when the prices high.
• We hold short-term short outlook now as the market is expected to move downward.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate short position today as the market was resisted.
• Traders who are holding long positions may prepare to close-out those positions when the prices are high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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