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Global Markets Analysis – 26 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9月26日 周五 下周内盘面临长假停盘

美盘大豆由于收获季的开始,新豆上市压力制约美盘大豆价格,昨晚美豆继续下跌,美豆油期价整体变化不大,处于犹豫徘徊阶段,一种欲跌还涨或欲涨还跌的模棱两可状态。

大陆内盘油脂商品中,豆油1501合约,周一长阴K线下跌,一付张牙舞爪下破前低态势,周二周三小幅阴棒右侧整理,周四跳空上涨,今天周五早盘再跳空下挫,期价完全无序波动,资金面比较混乱,令期价走势不能延续。棕榈油1501合约,受马盘毛棕榈油反弹上涨影响,期价在箱体内波动,上沿有阻挡下沿有支撑,今天周五早盘当期价再次来到箱体上沿附近,高开低走又回落下来,内盘棕榈油箱体内宽幅波动进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在收复40天线后,昨日跳空高开上涨,期价一举反弹上行到60天线2200位置,今天周五早盘继续在该位置运行,当前马盘受9月份棕榈油产量下降而出口量坚挺双重利好影响明显,9月2日以来的反弹行情进行中。

小 结:大陆内盘下周将迎来中国建国65周年国庆7天长假,下周仅9月29和9月30日两个交易日 ,10月1日至10月7日停盘休息,考虑到内盘假期前资金面比较混乱,油脂商品走势无持续性,可操作性不强,个人观点认为内盘油脂商品停止全部操作,场外观望与等待10月份的局势明朗。马盘毛棕榈油强势反弹行情延续中,虽前几日盘中曾出现过3天短暂的下蹲空头陷阱,但当失地收复后反弹行情仍得以延续,有多单者可继续持有, 后市密切关注在60天线位置的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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