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Global Markets Analysis – 26 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.09.2016 周一 油脂类商品多单继续持有

美国中西部地区由于强降雨与洪水造成大豆收割受阻,但由于对美大豆整体丰产的担忧,美盘黄豆连上周五期价下跌。上周末受国际原油OPEC组织共同减产协议未达成一致意见影响,国际原油价格出现下滑,而美盘豆油12月合约也呈现中阴下跌走势。今天周一亚洲电子盘美豆油12月合约期价红盘阳K线表现,令上周五的期价跌幅收窄,这在一定程度上提振了全球油脂商品的做多热情,考虑到美盘豆油上涨态势的动能未出现明显衰竭迹象,我们继续短多的谨慎思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 与棕榈油1701主力合约,今天周一上午盘面依旧中阳红盘表现,期价上行意愿还较为强烈,尚未出现任何的变盘迹象,我们短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月合约,在上周五中阴下跌之后,今天周一早盘仍能高开高走,盘中强势特征仍比较明显,期价在较高点位置波动徘徊,而下方的跳空缺口,始终支持有效,我们继续短多观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油还尚未突破前高技术位置(仍在积蓄能量),大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品在较高位置继续震荡波动,还在等待美盘豆油上涨破前高(8月23日高点)的有力支持,在整体油脂商品的上涨动能未衰竭前,我们继续保持短多思路不变。 观点认为具体操作上:前期中长与短线各周期多单继续谨慎持有。等待美盘豆油后续市场的走势支持,以静制动心理理念对待当前盘面。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean has yet to break previous high but is gaining momentum.
• China and Malaysia edible oil products remain volatile at high prices, waiting US soybean to break August 23rd high.
• Until overall upward momentum eases, we maintain our short-term long position outlook.

[OPINION]
• Traders may maintain existing short, medium and long-term long positions.
• Traders may patiently wait for any movement of US soybean oil, before deciding on the next move.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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