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Global Markets Analysis – 26 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.09.2017周二油脂商品短线超跌之后出现更小周期期价反复现象

最新美国农业部作物生长为报告显示,截止9月24日,美国早产大豆收割率为10%,低于5年来平均值。在前面很早时候我们就曾提到过—–从9月末到10月中旬为大豆主产区的收获季节,一般情况下在10月中旬达到高峰值(包括中国大陆大豆主产区也是同一时间)。因此上早早考虑到新豆上市给市场带来的供应心理压力是必须考虑的因素。当前美豆油12月合约,短线回落整理走势延续中,但需谨防出现期价下破60天线后,期价反复现象。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,短线走势也在追随美盘马盘油脂商品走势,呈抵抗性回落整理,考虑到中国大陆方面—-秋季冬季为油脂商品消费高峰期,因此上我们在以短线回落整理观点看待当前走势的同时,也有必要从需求方面考虑下方下挫的空间大小,我个人观点——-短线我们看空,但中长线却不可盲目看低很多。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(11月),今天周二早盘期价高开,上午盘面出现震荡小幅走高现象—–这种走势也在我们预料当中,毕竟连续多日阴K线下跌,更小周期分时图表上早已经处于严重超卖现象,因此上今天的小阳K线表现,不足为奇。在短线未出现明显止跌信号前继续短空看待,仅仅需要预防更小周期上的期价反复。

小结:油脂类商品短线回落整理进行中,由于更小周期分时图表上早就出现“超卖”迹象,因此期价在阴K线之后出现反复现象不足为奇。后市短线我们继续关注美盘豆油在下破60天均线之后的具体表现—–下方空间还有多大?成为我们所关注的新焦点。在具体操作上:我们依旧延续昨日操作建议,在本周剩余时间内(如果错过昨天,那还剩4天,4天内还有机会见到低点平仓机会),待盘中出现阴K线低点时候前期空单分批量,分价格一批批,一手手平仓兑现了结,不求最低,只求完成本波短空操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of global edible oils continues, as a downward correction is in the progress.
• The market might begin to rebound as the overbought condition has occurred in the market.
• Traders may pay close attention to the movements of US soybean oil after it broke below the 60-days moving average.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, traders who are holding short positions may reduce positions when the prices are low.
• Traders may close-out all positions before end of this week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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