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Global Markets Analysis – 27 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.04.2016 周三 全球油脂类商品短线走势仍不够清晰明朗

美盘黄大豆受南美大豆收获减产利多影响,昨日周二晚间又再度上涨。当前正是美国大豆种植期,据美国农业部发布的作物进度周报显示:美国18个州大豆主产区的大豆播种面积,截止到4月24日已经播种3%,去年同期为2%,过去5年平均播种进度为2%。这18个州大豆播种面积占美国大豆总面积的95%。美国播种工作正在进行中,后期待播种完成,天气炒作将成为重点。

美盘豆油7月合约,短线4天来期价几乎未动,盘中变化不大,短线走势上略显诡异,方向感不强烈,我们继续保持谨慎态度对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油,全国各大港口现货交货价格略有下降,但整体基本保持稳定。期货市场上豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,短线的反弹上行延续中,但期价继续上涨的动能略显衰竭,期价仅仅能勉强维持在较高位置,今天周三盘中,期价高开低走,盘面仍略显疲软,对这种模糊走势我们继续保持警惕心态。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,由于马来西亚棕榈油产量处于季节性增长期,以及对出口量的担忧将制约马盘棕榈的短线继续上行,而令吉特的疲软又制约期价的大幅下跌, 当前马盘毛棕榈油也处于反弹到阶段性高点后的心理纠结期,今天周三盘面走势,期价小幅波动,整体变化不大,仍在等待外围油脂市场整体的变化指引。

小结:美盘豆油横盘波动,短线走势模糊,内盘油脂商品又临近五一假期(本周最后三个交易日),马盘棕榈也呈纠结走势。短线来说-全球油脂类商品近几日走势不清晰,欲涨还跌或欲跌还涨中我们继续保持谨慎心态。考虑到假期临近,后市方向性不强烈,我们继续保持逢高减仓多单的操作模式,萎靡不振的模糊行情,我们没必要苦苦恋战以及纠结其中,待5月1日劳动节之后,行情较为明朗时再进行操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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