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Global Markets Analysis – 27 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.27 周三 油脂类商品出现技术反弹要求

大陆内盘油脂商品周三早盘出现技术反弹要求的雏形。其中豆油1501合约率先领涨,该品种从上周开始就提前出现止跌迹象,本周一瞬间低开后,构成空头陷阱,低位追空者在随后的探底回升中空单被套,今天早盘期价发力上涨,前几日横盘的成交密集区被形成向上突破,期间空单持有者存在被套嫌疑,后市向上反弹要求强烈。

大陆内盘棕榈油1501合约,周三早盘K线形态表现为‘金针探底’ ,虽技术走势尚没豆油强,但前期的疲软态势有所改善。

美盘豆油本周初表现一般,本周三天来均小阳K线收盘,技术反弹拐点信号尚不完全明确,但短线的止跌迹象露出端倪,被三根错列的右侧向上阳K线给暴漏,对于该盘面语言,我们要保持警惕。(不排除周三晚间美盘突然发力)

马盘毛棕榈油当前尚未开盘,但在外围市场出现走强迹象影响带动下,恐开盘后出现上涨。

小结:在美盘仅出现止跌迹象但尚未出现“拐点”前,(技术拐点一般当时是看不出来的,只能从“右侧”随后走势清晰后才能明确) 大陆内盘油脂商品今天早盘率先出现技术反弹盘面信号,特别是豆油1501品种。由于我们在一周前就开始预期此种情况的发生,所以当盘面出现我们预期中的迹象时,我们心理上在第一时间是会十分敏感。后市观点上从今天开始,我们以技术性反弹观点看待,周期上,起先时候我们先以短线层面对待。个人看法是激进操作者可率先于内盘豆油1501合约上多单尝试进场。稳健操作者可部分进场接盘多单抢反弹,也可待美盘今晚之后出现中阳K线后再迅速多单跟进。马盘毛棕榈油待开盘后,若出现发力上行情况,可少量多单跟进。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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