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Global Markets Analysis – 27 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.12.2017周三美盘豆油中阳上涨内盘马盘油脂商品锁仓交易者空单平仓离场

美盘豆油3月合约“圣诞节”假期过后,昨日周二晚间开盘交易—-期价跳空高开高走中阳K线上涨表现,期价再度上穿到原先上升趋势线的上方(下破之后,只在下面停留了3天),对于这一“异常走势”,我们其实早有心理准备,此前曾建议内盘马盘激进型交易者当美豆油期价下破关键技术位时候短空追进,并且也建议空单见好就收。而对于稳健型交易者,考虑到美盘豆油短线走势的不确定性,可多单空单多锁仓一两天,关注一下美盘豆油的具体动向——从昨日晚间美豆油的表现来判断,不排除美豆油“瞬间下破”趋势线关键技术位,做了一个“短暂的空头陷阱”,期价再度反身上行。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,在美盘豆油昨日晚间重返趋势线上方走势明显后,内盘油脂商品今天周三早盘期价追随性高开高走,盘面红盘上涨走势明显,我们建议双向锁单交易者手中空单平仓离场,后市存在短线技术反弹要求。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,本周一恰逢圣诞节假期停盘一天,昨日周二盘面曾一度波澜不惊,但在下午收盘前最后30分钟,期价突然拔高,增仓上行为多头主力进场护盘,马盘棕榈油更早一天提前发动超跌之后的反弹动作。在昨日报告中,我们也曾提到过,若见盘面有任何的“风吹草动”空单应及时先平仓离场。不出意外的话,今天马盘棕榈油仍有上攻欲望。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势给油脂市场“开了个玩笑”—–前几日瞬间下破趋势线,昨日晚间又瞬间上攻趋势线,存在下破不成功的可能性,我们内心深处仍然对超跌之后的油脂市场抱有技术反弹走势看法,这种观点我们始终不曾放弃过,这也是我们短线被套多单未盲目止损的原因所在。今日具体操作:鉴于美豆油瞬间走强,内盘马盘稳健型交易者手中的双向“保护性”锁仓交易—-今日开锁,空单在早上第一时间平仓了结离场,而激进型交易者此前已经空单平仓完毕,“单向敞口”的多单继续持有,后市油脂商品短线我们以超跌之后的技术反弹走势看待,同时密切关注美豆油重返趋势线上方之后的表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil surges overnight after a sharp decline over the past few days.
• For that reason, we may hold onto the outlook of a technical reversal following a sharp decline.

[ACTION]
• Riding the strength of US soybean oil, passive traders of China and Malaysia edible oils may liquidate the short side of their spread trades.
• Aggressive traders may retain long positions, after closing-out the short side.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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