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Global Markets Analysis – 27 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.07.2015 周一 美盘豆油上周五下破前低;油脂商品下探明显

上周五晚间,美盘豆油12月合约追随美盘黄豆下跌,(二者前期走势上有所不同,美大豆反弹时候,美豆油并未反弹走势)。美豆油周五的中阴K线下跌,宣告短线上前次(7月8日)低点被技术下破成立,后市仍有些许下探空间。但考虑到本次美盘豆油疲软下行已经连续多日,整体调整已经相当充分,因此后市下行空间我们依然不看很大。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,今天周一早盘跳空低开低走,期价下行开始明显,在美盘豆油下破前低后,内盘多头主力今天放弃了盘中抵抗,在多头减仓盘以及空头增仓打压盘合力作用下,今天内盘油脂商品出现了较强的下行压力。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,在国际原油走低,美盘豆油下破技术支撑位,内盘走软等等周边市场疲软带动下,今天周一早盘同样走弱,早盘跳空大幅低开,盘面弱势明显,虽日内低开高走红盘运行,但受外界油脂商品整体疲软影响下,恐后市仍存震荡下探可能。

小结:国际原油持续下跌,美盘豆油下破前技术支撑,外围市场的疲软影响严重。 内盘与马盘油脂类商品今天出现明显下跌,前期盘中的多头抵抗无功而返。油脂商品的短线出现整体走弱迹象,短线抵抗失败后,个人短线观点转为短空看淡。考虑到美豆油下方,中长线周期层面的关键技术支撑就在30.00一线左右,因此建议目前短线对下方下探空间幅度不严重看很多,仅以疲软看待。个人观点认为中长线周期下的多单可继续持有。短线角度下的多单在美豆油下破前低后,多单止损出局。 短线激进操作者可适量反手逢高短空,但不建议盲目下看空间很多,有利润可见好就收,不贪。建议同时密切关注美盘豆油在下方何处受到技术支撑。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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