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Global Markets Analysis – 27 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.06.2016 周一 上周五公投结果明朗-英国脱欧,全球股市惨遭血洗“黑色星期五”重现

6月24日周五晚些时候,英国公投结果出炉-英国脱欧派胜出!在全球一片哗然声中,全球股市为之震颤,当天股票市值瞬间蒸发达两万亿美元以上。道琼斯指数 、纳斯达克指数、标准普尔500以及欧洲股市全部长阴下跌,跌幅之大令人咋舌。新兴市场也宣告下跌,但跌幅略小。全球富豪排行榜总值也集体蒸发了990亿美元,其中比尔盖茨(24亿美元)、巴菲特(23亿美元)和墨西哥电信大亨贝索斯(16亿美元)、李嘉诚资产缩水11亿美元。市场哀鸣一片!

在上周五时候,我们就针对此次英国公投事件有所谈及,并且报告中明确指出,英国脱欧事件对中国股市影响会相对较小,虽然上周五中国股票市场同样出现下跌,但盘中恐慌情绪不浓,跌幅较小,尾盘时候跌幅收窄。今天周一早盘,上证指数低开高走,截止此刻红盘表现。

期货市场虽然也受该事件牵连,但同样影响程度要小于证券市场与外汇市场,我们较为关心的油脂类商品市场整体波动不大-仅仅是小幅下跌,而逢低空单离场仍是我们散户朋友的主要操作思维。上周五美盘豆油12月合约中阴下跌,期价仍在前低5月25日的低点附近运行-前低附近空单减仓仍属于明智之举,今天美盘豆油亚洲电子盘此时小阳K线表现。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,上周五时候同样中阴K线下跌,但今天周一早盘恐慌情绪得到遏制,期价低开后反而高走,K线上出现阳包阴的技术组合-这盘面现象要引起我们散户朋友的警惕。马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,上周五十字星K线,期价几乎未受英国脱欧事件的丝毫影响,盘中波动不大,今天周一早盘期价更是高开小阳表现,我们此前报告中几次提及-空单逢低平仓离场建议仍继续执行,离场后的部分散户朋友可暂时场外观望,等待市场新的变盘机会走势。

小结:英国脱欧事件对全球股票市场,外汇市场影响严重,财富再分配行动残酷进行中。期货市场相对来说影响幅度一般。对今天油脂类商品来说-略微出现异动, 特别是内盘与马盘油脂类商品上,均出现不同程度的低开高走情况,若大陆内盘油脂商品能出现 “阳包阴”的K线组合-提这是在提醒我们要保持警惕,谨防期价下挫回落整理之后的反弹报复。个人观点认为具体操作上:继续执行空单逢低平仓离场建议,空单仓位逐步减小到最低限度。部分已经全部空单平仓了结的散户朋友可暂时离场观望。后市,我们继续关注美盘是否出现止跌企稳机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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