Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 27 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周四 接盘时刻临近 一两天准备进场

美盘豆油已然我行我素继续保持B浪回调整理,期价在40天与60天线中间位置运行,尚未有明显止跌信号,但惯性下跌的力度在逐渐减弱,期价下跌幅度收窄,虽离60天线一步之遥却始终不愿下来,短线期价呈4天来右侧横盘,表明在快要到达60天线时候,多空都出现了谨慎。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日追随内盘高开,但由于该品种回落的幅度在内外盘油脂类商品中是最小的,调整的最不够充分,因此形成高开低走现象,期价下破40天线,以中阴收盘,期价离下方60天线也仅仅只有一点点距离,从盘面观察,该品种仍在保持回落状态,同样未出现止跌企稳迹象。

大陆内盘豆油 棕榈油1409合约,由于提前下挫考验了60天线的支撑效果,昨日开始出现增仓上行苗头,增仓上行为多头进场盘口语言,表明有部分多头主力按耐不住焦虑情绪提前悄悄接盘。 内盘油脂连续几天红盘报收,大有提前反身向上意境,唯一遗憾的是没有得到美盘 马盘 油脂商品走势上的支持,目前仍在积蓄做多能量人气。

小结:从内外盘油脂商品的表现,本波回落整理行情运行到尾声阶段信号比较明显,但由于美盘及马盘离关键技术支撑位还有一小点点距离,也就是我们前面提到的“还差1–2个下挫动作,就是这么一点点距离,60天线的技术支撑就不能得到完全技术上的确认。此种情况后市有2种短线发展可能: 1. 当投资人的目光都盯在60天线位置接盘,期价反而掉不下来了,继而发展为转身上行。 2. 期价再来一个破杀动作 ,瞬间击穿60天线,造成多头的恐慌,然后才反身上涨。 我们现在所不能确认的就是这两点市场到底选择那种, 我们前面提到“完美”就是指的这层含义。虽然我们做不到最完美,但希望我们做到最接近完美。 鉴于上面所提到地种情况,操作上前期空单一定要保持逢低出场状态,越出现急挫越平仓, 不太追求完美的操作者找个机会就平了吧,已经是鱼尾巴了没多大的油水。 准备接盘的趋势 波段 短线三类操作者,该你们上场的时候到了, 其中激进者可适当少量进多试盘,遇急挫补仓(内盘)。 稍微稳健的可逢急挫进多 待反身上涨信号明确加仓(马盘)。 投资者可对号入坐。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.